Nicolas Tenzer Profile picture
Jan 24 6 tweets 4 min read
If this US decision to send M1 #Abrams tanks to #Ukraine (despite some technicalities) were confirmed, it would be remarkable.
It certainly depends on the number.
With 200 or 300 #Leopard2, a real game-changer.
But time is of the essence.
#Thread 🧵
1/6
wsj.com/articles/polan…
First, we, democratic countries, must be clear about our goal: to give Kyiv the means to reclaim ALL the territories invaded since 2014 (including #Crimea).
We need to move from "Defend #Ukraine" to "Make #Ukraine win" and "Defeat Russia".
Let's be straightforward.
2/6 Image
We must throw all our available forces into the battle: heavy tanks, long-range missiles, fighter planes — the only way to end the war as soon as possible.
The combination of these forces (+ military intelligence) will bring victory.
The longer we delay, the higher the cost.
3/6 ImageImage
But we must move quickly, very quickly, because everyone knows that spring will be decisive, and the problem is of course the time between now and the arrival of these weapons in numbers.
We must not let the Russians exploit this window of opportunity.
4/6 Image
Every day that passes is counted in human lives lost. We are guilty of wasting time, far too much time.
As I already stated on 24 February, we had to go in immediately, massively.
The invocation of risks has always been a cover for our lack of strategic intelligence.
5/6 Image
I do not exclude — I also said it at that time — that we would be obliged to make up for the immediate lack of weapons with our own means.
We doubtless have no other decent and strategically relevant choice.
6/6 Image

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More from @NTenzer

Jan 26
10 principles for these weeks (recap).
1 In the medium to long term, the main cost would be the non-defeat of #Russia.
It would be terrible for #Ukraine, #Syria, #Georgia, #Belarus, #Moldova, #Africa..., but also for Europe and the world.
It should dictate our strategic goal. Image
2 In the short term, the worst cost is measured in terms of Ukrainian lives (civilians, military, people in the occupied territories, incl. Crimean Tatars).
This is what must matter to us first.
We must defeat #Russia as quickly as possible with all possible conventional weapons. Image
3 Western leaders must banish certain words, including:
- escalation risks;
- red lines;
- peace talks;
- negotiations;
- compromise;
- balance;
- architecture of stability...
Words matter.
Narrative matter. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 26, 2022
Je vais tenter de répondre en plusieurs temps.
Mon propos n'est jamais que la prolongation de mes avertissements depuis plus de quinze ans sur le régime russe.
A mon sens, retomber aujourd'hui dans le "camp de la paix" serait risquer le même type de bévue que celui qui
1/16
nous a conduit au désastre mortel.
Certes, dans chaque camp, il existe des nuances, principalement en termes de réponse opérationnelle à la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine. Mais de toutes les discussions que j'ai eues au cours des derniers mois, je conclus qu'ils existent bel
2/16
et bien dans la plupart des cercles dirigeants occidentaux.
Ceux qui souhaitent la paix (certes, nous la souhaitons tous et il est bien commode de se dire en sa faveur) ne précisent somme toute jamais à quel prix. Sur quoi négocier ? Avec qui ? Que seraient les conséquences
3/16
Read 16 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
To be fair, @EmmanuelMacron doesn't legitimize Putin's war of extermination. Elsewhere, he says no peace should include recognition of a status quo imposed by force.
But in saying this—"Russian power has been nourished by the resentment & humiliation born of the breakup...
🧵
1/9
of the Soviet empire"—, he not only commits a major communication blunder (for that is what will be remembered), but once more misunderstands the nature of the Russian regime.
1 He still does not grasp that...
2/9
the discourse of humiliation is just a ruse of Putin's power that aims at sharing a belief (what I had called in a paper the perception of a perception), exactly in the same way that its use by Hitler (the humiliation by the Treaty of Versailles, the "stab in the back")...
3/9
Read 9 tweets
Oct 23, 2022
I have difficulty understanding the intent of this message in terms of communication and substance.
A short thread on this.
Let's talk straight.
🧵
1/7
1 In terms of substance, the question is not whether or not to isolate Putin, but to ensure that the Russian regime loses the war, is put out of action, which implies its disappearance—I certainly understand that @MinColonna can't say this explicitly.
2/7
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-would-t…
2 Moreover, to think that talking to him could change him is the same illusion that has prevailed in recent years.
To send warning messages is certainly something else and could make sense. The US did. Has nothing to do with the isolation narrative.
3/7
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 1, 2022
1 Putin's #Russia is the #enemy, the absolute enemy, not by nature but because of the threats it poses to the whole world.
Since too long.
Let's declare it so for good!
He's the total #evil, personally, and—most importantly—politically.
Short #thread🧵
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl…
2 #Russia must be defeated totally, radically, absolutely, i.e. strategically.
It must be put out of action.
Its troops must be expelled from #Ukraine, from #Georgia, from #Belarus, from #Syria, from #Africa.
For the sake of humanity.
Our goal.
tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/six-months-e…
3 Putin's speech is irrelevant. So let's stop giving it a value it doesn't have.
He repeated what we've known for 23 years about this regime. All these threats are old.
Some did not want to see it. Their fault is immeasurable.
This regime should have been destroyed long ago.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
Merci pour ce message qui témoigne de votre intérêt pour mes longs papiers sur #TenzerStrategics (ce qui fait la spécificité de ce blog).
Vous n'êtes pas la première à me le demander (et merci à mes abonnés en forte croissance à travers le monde).
Quelques éléments de réponse.
1 Chacun(e) peut utiliser le cas échéant un logiciel de traduction.
2 Mon public n'est pas essentiellement français (d'où le choix de l'anglais, langue de fait universelle qu'on le veuille ou non).
3 Je n'ai pas d'assistant(e) - cela explique aussi que je laisse de nombreux...
messages sans réponse (je ne lis pas toujours mes DM ici et l'équivalent sur les autres RS).
4 Sous réserve que cela soit techniquement possible d'avoir deux blogs sur substack, ce n'est pas impossible non plus, mais c'est un lourd travail quand même.
5 Combien seraient prêts...
Read 4 tweets

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