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Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Feb 20

https://twitter.com/SabFis3/status/1495391517459972097

Exactly one year ago today I left #Moscow, the city I had been traveling to, working and living in for so many years, with apocalyptic feelings.

I had spent one week talking to people from the foreign policy community, sociologists, civil society activists, friends.
🧵(1/17)

https://twitter.com/SabFis3/status/1495391517459972097

Until Thursday (17/2) foreign policy experts were absolutely convinced that there would be no war. Remember, Moscow and Western capitals were still discussing the Russian “treaty proposals” on “security guarantees”. (2/17)

German Chancellor #Scholz visited Moscow on Tuesday (15/2) of that week. No, no, no, most colleagues would say, #Putin is using diplomatic pressure (what they meant was: blackmail) to get some concessions out of the US and the “collective West”. (3/17)

Read 17 tweets

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Feb 12

I will not speculate about the content of #Putin’s speech. Maybe he will announce a plan to end the war, maybe he won’t. Many people in #Russia do hope he will, for a variety of reasons.

But here are the 2 important things: 🧵(1/7)

#RussiaInvadedUkraine
#StandWithUkraine

1. Whatever he says, he will not take back any of the #annexations since March 2014. Reminder: Russia now illegally claims 20% of #Ukraine’s territory its own. His 2020 constitution not only “allows” Putin to remain in the #Kremlin until 2036,
(2/7)

it expressly forbids giving up any part of “Russia’s state territory”. Needless to say, Putin won’t admit to any of the war crimes committed in Ukraine. Reparations are out of the question. So, whatever Putin may or can offer in the conditions he created for himself
(3/7)

Read 8 tweets

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Feb 11

Weil es gerade viele Kommentare über 🇷🇺 Zivilgesellschaft und 🇩🇪 Politik gibt dazu noch ein paar Gedanken.

🇩🇪hat die 🇷🇺Zivilgesellschaft teilweise im Stich gelassen und teilweise nicht. Den "Sonderbeziehungen" mit #Putin ist (zu) viel geopfert worden. Der Petersburger Dialog

ist zu einer großen Belastung geworden. Gut, dass er nun endlich aufgelöst wird.

Aber es gab auch immer intensive Beziehungen in die unabhängige 🇷🇺Zivilgesellschaft hinein. Die engsten Partner von Organisationen wie #Memorial und anderen saßen von Anfang an in 🇩🇪.

@boell_easteurop

Die politischen Stiftungen, besonders @boell_easteurop, @fes_russia und @FNFreiheit, haben wichtige Arbeit gemacht + tun das auch weiterhin, ebenso sehr viele deutsche NGOs. Es gibt, u.a. öff. finanziert, Unterstützung für verfolgte Wissenschaftler:innen.
science-at-risk.org/en

Read 9 tweets

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Jan 19

There is one aspect that is often ommitted in the discussion about military of negotiated solution of #Russia’s war against #Ukraine: the likely future development in the Russian occupied territories and in the Eastern Europe and Europe (!) more broadly.
1/8

#Ukraine wants to reinstate its legitimate sovereign control over these territories. The war damages there are immense. Unless Russia is forced to pay #reparations, Ukraine and its supporters will be saddled with the monstrous costs of post-conflict economic reconstruction.
2/8

But at least there is a pospect of reconstruction within the borders of a Ukrainian state that is moving towards membership in the #EuropeanUnion.
If #Russia keeps those territories under its control or occupies even more Ukrainian territory – what will happen there?
3/8

Read 10 tweets

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Jan 13

@HateAid

Ein paar Worte zu #HateSpeech.

Im Oktober entschloss ich mich, @HateAid um Rat und Unterstützung zu bitten - nachdem ich bis dato alle persönlichkeitsverletzenden Anwürfe in Ordner verschoben oder gelöscht hatte. Aber da war diese eine Email, die eine Email zu viel war.

@HateAid

Die Hilfe kam prompt, professionell und effizient. @HateAid befand, mein Fall habe Aussicht, schnell und erfolgreich beschieden zu werden. Sie brachten mich mit einer Anwaltskanzlei in Verbindung, die sich der Sache annahm. Wir stellten Strafantrag.

Die betreffende Person wurde von der Polizei konfrontiert und war sofort geständig. Wir einigten uns daraufhin außergerichtlich auf eine Unterlassungserklärung, die Übernahme meiner Anwaltskosten und eine Entschädigung.

Read 8 tweets

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

Jan 13

#Kremlin sources: preparation for 2024 presidential election + #Putin candidacy have started, with particular regard to war against 🇺🇦 aka "SpeMilOp", voters directly affected by it, situation in "new territories" (proclaimed to be annexed in 09/22).

kommersant.ru/doc/5761328

Main theme for #Putin campaign likely to be "unity". Might become clear in his address to the General Assemply, initially scheduled for December 22 but then postponed.

2023 regional elections in September will be testing ground for voting technologies under conditions of war.

So people in #Kremlin think war might last until 17 March 2024?

Putin candidacy is no surprise. Preparations for 2024 started long ago but are getting concrete with the international super-election-year 2024 approaching fast.

Will Kremlin calculations prove to be correct?

Read 5 tweets

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