Some reminders in the form of a short #thread.
1 Democratic leaders should avoid talking about "peace talks" or "peace agreements" even in the distant future, at least as long as Putin's regime, or the equivalent, is in place.
Period. 1/6 🧵
2 Let's stop lending any interest to supposed #mediation attempts. We do not need a mediator. We need to ensure #Ukraine's victory. That's all there is to it.
Western governments should stop with this desire to be deceived all the time. 2/6
3 Let's stop fussing about #securityguarantees for Ukraine. It needs a NATO+. It deserves it and @NATO would benefit from it too. All its territories must be liberated.
I do not suggest buying the sometimes-heard thesis of a guarantee on a part of the territories. 3/6
4 Let's not say: "We'll see in a few months what the state of forces will be & how much territory 🇺🇦was able to recover!"
These are the words of leaders who don't want to go all the way.
Hypocritical & indecent!
It all depends on us.
If we engage, it will recover its territories.
5 I wrote it & said it yesterday at a rally for #Ukraine: Let's not stay in the middle of the ford.
Let's not remain timid in our will to save lives.
Let's stop with the sickening bullshit about escalation, cobelligerence, red lines, future negotiations.
Let's be straightforward!
6 Let's never stop talking about mass #crimes.
They must inhabit our consciousness and that of the leaders.
These are the crimes that will continue as long as #Russia occupies a part of the territory and that must guide our action.
With absolute #evil there can be no peace—never.
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Itw superbement menée par @ilasserre avec @ZelenskyyUa
"Le monde ne parlera plus de la même manière à la Russie. Les Occidentaux vont devoir revoir leur politique 🇷🇺, même si un autre dirigeant arrive au pouvoir à Moscou. Vous devez changer de vision."
1 lefigaro.fr/international/…
"L'escalade, ce sont les Russes qui en sont responsables. Ils ont torturé, assassiné, enterré des gens vivants. Je savais par les livres que ce genre de meurtres & atrocités de masse existait. Je ne pouvais pas imaginer que cela puisse se reproduire dans le monde d'aujourd'hui"
2
"Concernant les partenaires qui m'ont prévenu, qu'ont-ils fait pour l'éviter ? Que nous ont-ils donné depuis 2014? Qu'ont-ils fait pour éviter une attaque? Pourquoi l'Otan ne s'est-elle pas engagée si elle savait une invasion probable ? Ts les efforts diplomatiques ont échoué."
3
10 principles for these weeks (recap).
1 In the medium to long term, the main cost would be the non-defeat of #Russia.
It would be terrible for #Ukraine, #Syria, #Georgia, #Belarus, #Moldova, #Africa..., but also for Europe and the world.
It should dictate our strategic goal.
2 In the short term, the worst cost is measured in terms of Ukrainian lives (civilians, military, people in the occupied territories, incl. Crimean Tatars).
This is what must matter to us first.
We must defeat #Russia as quickly as possible with all possible conventional weapons.
3 Western leaders must banish certain words, including:
- escalation risks;
- red lines;
- peace talks;
- negotiations;
- compromise;
- balance;
- architecture of stability...
Words matter.
Narrative matter.
If this US decision to send M1 #Abrams tanks to #Ukraine (despite some technicalities) were confirmed, it would be remarkable.
It certainly depends on the number.
With 200 or 300 #Leopard2, a real game-changer.
But time is of the essence. #Thread 🧵 1/6 wsj.com/articles/polan…
First, we, democratic countries, must be clear about our goal: to give Kyiv the means to reclaim ALL the territories invaded since 2014 (including #Crimea).
We need to move from "Defend #Ukraine" to "Make #Ukraine win" and "Defeat Russia".
Let's be straightforward. 2/6
We must throw all our available forces into the battle: heavy tanks, long-range missiles, fighter planes — the only way to end the war as soon as possible.
The combination of these forces (+ military intelligence) will bring victory.
The longer we delay, the higher the cost. 3/6
Je vais tenter de répondre en plusieurs temps.
Mon propos n'est jamais que la prolongation de mes avertissements depuis plus de quinze ans sur le régime russe.
A mon sens, retomber aujourd'hui dans le "camp de la paix" serait risquer le même type de bévue que celui qui
1/16
nous a conduit au désastre mortel.
Certes, dans chaque camp, il existe des nuances, principalement en termes de réponse opérationnelle à la guerre russe contre l'Ukraine. Mais de toutes les discussions que j'ai eues au cours des derniers mois, je conclus qu'ils existent bel
2/16
et bien dans la plupart des cercles dirigeants occidentaux.
Ceux qui souhaitent la paix (certes, nous la souhaitons tous et il est bien commode de se dire en sa faveur) ne précisent somme toute jamais à quel prix. Sur quoi négocier ? Avec qui ? Que seraient les conséquences
3/16
To be fair, @EmmanuelMacron doesn't legitimize Putin's war of extermination. Elsewhere, he says no peace should include recognition of a status quo imposed by force.
But in saying this—"Russian power has been nourished by the resentment & humiliation born of the breakup...
🧵 1/9
of the Soviet empire"—, he not only commits a major communication blunder (for that is what will be remembered), but once more misunderstands the nature of the Russian regime.
1 He still does not grasp that...
2/9
the discourse of humiliation is just a ruse of Putin's power that aims at sharing a belief (what I had called in a paper the perception of a perception), exactly in the same way that its use by Hitler (the humiliation by the Treaty of Versailles, the "stab in the back")...
3/9
1 In terms of substance, the question is not whether or not to isolate Putin, but to ensure that the Russian regime loses the war, is put out of action, which implies its disappearance—I certainly understand that @MinColonna can't say this explicitly. 2/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-would-t…
2 Moreover, to think that talking to him could change him is the same illusion that has prevailed in recent years.
To send warning messages is certainly something else and could make sense. The US did. Has nothing to do with the isolation narrative. 3/7 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/ukraine-the-…