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Mar 1 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
#DeGea showing how to deal with a long range 1v1!

He initially stays deep & therefore doesn’t gift an easy chip/sidefoot finish by maximising his reaction time!

But once #Antonio takes the additional touch #DDG rushes out quickly & forms the block & snuffs out the shot!

#MUFC
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!

By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
This is when #DeGea really nailed it!

Rather than continuing to stay deep #DeGea realised that now MA was close enough that his reaction time may not be enough to save the shot so he rushed & formed the premeditated block barrier reducing the goal probability to 34%!

#MUFC
The block is effective during close range wide 1v1s as it keeps the GK upright, somewhat nullifying the chip, while also closing the gap between the GKs legs, thus nullifying the straight finish.

Thus the block stops the 2 easiest finishes during wide 1v1s beating the GK!
Many GKs really struggle when facing long range 1v1s & lack patience as they feel they need to engage the ball & thus gift simple finishes to the striker.

#DeGea showed exactly what you need to do, wait deep initially, but don’t wait forever if the striker continues to dribble!
If you are interested in the optimum strategy GKs can utilise during 1v1s check out this thread, it is old & my model has evolved but the general principles remain the same!

PS keep your eyes peeled for a full 1v1 course which will be dropping on goalkeeper.com soon!

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More from @Jhdharrison1

John Harrison Profile picture
Feb 28
Despite #NUFC’s loss to #MUFC #Karius showed that he is more than capable of playing at the top level!

Our model at #GKxG found his shot stopping was worth 0.22 goals more to #Newcastle than if they had an average #PremierLeague GK in goal

Full article👇 goalkeeper.com/news-and-media… Image
#Karius made 8 saves vs #MUFC, but GKing is about quality not quantity!

5 of the saves had xSave>99% thus #PremierLeague GKs save them every time!

The 2 interesting & difficult saves were the 1v1 vs #Bruno & #Weghorst’s long range shot! Which beat #PL GKs 41% & 29% of the time! Image
It was these saves whose difficulty outweighed the 2 goals #Karius conceded meaning #Karius saved an above expected amount of shots in the #LeagueCupFinal

#Karius could do nothing with the #Casemiro goal (xSave probability<5%) but the #Rashford goal was a little more interesting Image
Read 5 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Jan 3
#DeGea continues to be one of the best GKs vs long range 1v1s!

When #Anthony gets in #DeGea doesn’t rush out & gift an easy finish but holds deep & let’s his def recover & pressure the ball!

DDGs top decision making turned a 37% goal probability situation into a 16% one!

#MUFC
Gks, don’t always deal with these situations well & often panic & rush out allowing strikers to either chip it over them or curl it round them

Staying calm & letting your defenders pressure the ball & only rushing out once the striker is closer to goal is a vital skill to master
For those people saying it was a easy save:

#DeGea made the save look easy & made the save far easier for himself due to his top class decision to hold deep & then use his top hand. This made a difficult situation comfortable!

Great decision making makes hard saves easy!

#MUFC
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Sep 30, 2022
The #PremierLeague is back!

How has your team’s GK performed?

#Pickford’s class shot stopping & distribution puts him top 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

#Pope, #Henderson, & #Leno have had great starts at their new clubs🧤

Big mistakes have cost #DeGea & #Ramsdale 😱

#Ward has struggled in all areas 😞
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!

Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called

“Total Value in Goals”

Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
Read 7 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Sep 30, 2022
Will #Potter make #Kepa his number 1?

Most accept #Mendy is the superior shot stopper & shot preventer so the argument is about distributing

We @goalkeeper_com find in recent games #Mendy has been the better passer while both GKs have been equally error prone on the ball!

#CFC ImageImageImageImage
When receiving the ball under pressure, both #Chelsea GKs have been below the #PremierLeague standard!

#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds) Image
Similarly #Kepa has cost #CFC 0.59 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations as he did in his last 15 #PremierLeague games, #Kepa’s numbers here are heavily influenced by his mistake vs #Liverpool which #Mane capitalised on! Image
Read 5 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Aug 10, 2022
A GK’s handling ability is vital & often under analysed!

Here #DeGea showed how handling can determine a game’s outcome when he parried a 49mph central shot into danger & the rebound was scored!

xRebound xG = 0.09
Actual Rebound xG = 0.47

xG added due to poor handling = 0.38
My handling model uses historic shot data to gauge how often certain shots should be expected to be caught, parried away from danger, & parried into danger in combination with a none shot xG model which assesses how likely rebounds are to be scored based on the parry location
My model found that due the shot’s lower than avg velocity & central trajectory an avg PL GK would expect to parry the ball into an area which resulted in a goal from the rebound only 9% of the time whereas #DeGea pushed it into an area which results in a goal 47% of the time!
Read 8 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Jun 14, 2022
Not a good night for #Ramsdale!

The 4th goal summed it up!

-Engaged the 1v1 when it was 20yrd out & there was a CB covering making the finish far easier

-Using the smother technique rather than the spread technique making the chipped finish far more difficult to save

#ENGvHUN ImageImageImageImage
My 1v1 model shows that engaging 1v1s at distances greater than 14yrds from goal just makes the finishes easier rather than harder

The best GKs (like #Alisson) often wait deep & lure the striker in & then engage the ball once they know they can snuff out the shot!

#ENG #ENGvHUN
My 1v1 model also finds the smother to be very vulnerable when the 1v1 is central as it often allows the GK to be rounded or chipped plus it does very little to cover the side the GK does not have their hands!

A spread wouldn’t drastically increased the Rambos save probability!
Read 6 tweets

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