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Mar 8 3 tweets 4 min read
#Luhansk Oblast:

#Russian forces conducted limited attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on March 7. Geolocated footage depicting Russian forces storming and capturing Ukrainian positions NW of #Kreminna indicates limited Russian advances. isw.pub/UkrWar030723
2/ The #Ukrainian General Staff reported that #Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Hryanykivka (54km northwest of #Svatove), Nevske (17km north of #Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).
3/ Geolocated footage published on March 7 shows #Ukrainian artillery striking five #Russian tanks near Chervonopopivka (6km north of #Kreminna), indicating the further degradation of Russian mechanized forces in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar030723

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Mar 10
The #Wagner Group's offensive operation in eastern #Bakhmut appears to have entered a temporary tactical pause and it remains unclear if Wagner fighters will retain their operational preponderance in future #Russian offensives in the city. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar030923
2/There have been no reports of Wagner fighters conducting offensive operations from eastern #Bakhmut into central parts of the city since Russian forces captured all of eastern Bakhmut located east of the Bakhmutka River on March 7.
3/ #WagnerGroup fighters have been conducting highly attritional frontal assaults on eastern #Bakhmut for nine months and are likely not prepared to conduct a crossing of the Bakhmutka River to the Bakhmut city center at this time.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 10
#Donetsk Oblast: #Bakhmut Update:

#Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut on March 9 amidst a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar030923 ImageImage
2/ #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner Group fighters completely captured Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), and geolocated footage published on March 9 indicates that Wagner forces likely captured the settlement. Image
3/ The likely capture of Dubovo-Vasylivka corresponds with the increased tempo of RU offensive operations NW of #Bakhmut in recent days. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that #Russian forces conducted at least 30% of their assaults in #Ukraine northwest of Bakhmut on 8 MAR.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
The #Kremlin’s increasing public interactions on the topic of volunteer recruitment campaigns throughout #Russia and occupied #Ukraine indicate #Putin is embracing this effort—likely to avoid declaring mobilization. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
2/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry #Peskov reported that Russian President Vladimir #Putin met with #Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Head Yevgeny Balitskyi on March 7 to discuss the security and legal status of the Sudoplatov volunteer battalion among other topics.
3/ The #Kremlin barely acknowledged similar volunteer recruitment movements over the summer of 2022, and #Putin’s direct recognition of problems with the volunteer recruitment campaign is likely an attempt to incentivize more #Russians to enlist.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
Key Takeaway:

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated on March 8 that #Putin likely recognizes the #Russian military’s current limited capability to sustain a short-term offensive and may pursue a protracted war in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
2/ Haines stated on March 8 that Putin is likely only temporarily focused on pursuing short-term military objectives in Ukraine and may believe that prolonging the war will increase the likelihood of achieving his strategic goals. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
3/ ISW has continuously assessed that #Putin maintains maximalist war goals in #Ukraine despite #Russian forces’ currently limited capabilities to achieve those goals. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Donetsk Oblast: #Bakhmut

Russian forces have not yet completed a turning movement around Bakhmut and may be conducting a high pace of operations well NW of Bakhmut to spoil future Ukrainian counterattacks that could relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar030823 ImageImage
2/ The #Ukrainian General Staff reported that #Russian forces conducted more than 30 assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut), roughly thirty percent of the total Russian offensive operations that the General Staff reported in #Ukraine on March 8.
3/ The reported high pace of Russian assaults around Orikhovo-Vasylivka is likely too far NW of #Bakhmut to effectively aid in the attempted Russian turning movement around Bakhmut, given Orikhovo-Vasylivka is over 8km from the closest Ukrainian supply route through Khromove.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8
#Russian forces additionally likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond #Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar030723
2/ Recent #Russian advances within urban areas of #Bakhmut demonstrate that Russian forces can secure limited tactical gains with infantry-led frontal assaults. They likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to exploit roads (which are likely highly fortified) west of Bakhmut.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar has recently reported, Russian forces are increasingly relying on “assault detachments,” a battalion-size element optimized for frontal assaults on fortified areas, rather than for maneuver warfare.
Read 7 tweets

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