Thread by @AnnwieAnna

Erdogan´s move to only ratify #Finland goes against the wish of those 28 allies who have already ratified both Sweden and Finland – together, as it was intended. Turkey creates a wedge in #NATO that mainly serves the interest of Russia. A thread👇

atlanticcouncil.org/content-series…

1/5 Russia benefits from a fragmented and unfulfilled security architecture in Europe. Hungary, also with close ties to Russia, will follow suite and only ratify Finland.

2/5 Sweden’s status as an invitee means that defense and political integration into NATO is ongoing. Noteworthy, Turkey is not blocking it. In addition, several allies have already given bilateral security assurances. Hence, in the short term, the decoupling is less worrisome.

3/4 However, if it drags out for long, beyond the #Vilnius summit, the process risk to lose momentum, leaving #Sweden in limbo. This would undermine long term investments in collective deterrence and defense. It would also make the Alliance look politically weak and fragmented.

4/5 Therefore, it is important that from now to the Vilnius summit in mid-July, those allies who have ratified Sweden´s accession put pressure on Turkey to do the same. The #US is of course vital and the #F16 deal could be an central component.

5/5 But also the #UK, #Germany and #Spain have close relationships with Turkey and could be more active than they have been so far. In the end, Erdogan knows that having both Sweden and Finland inside of NATO benefits the security of all allies.

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