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Mar 26 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
As #Russian offensives culminate and Ukraine prepares to launch counter-offensives, #Putin claimed that the West cannot sustain weapons provisions to 🇺🇦 & exaggerated 🇷🇺's potential to mobilize its own defense industrial base (DIB) ... 1/3
isw.pub/UkrWar032523
... to create the false impression that further #Ukrainian resistance & Western support to 🇺🇦is futile.

#Putin’s comments are an information operation designed to revive the aura of #Soviet-era military industry and massed forces. 2/3
They do not reflect current #Russian realities or the balance of economic power or military industrial capacity between #Russia and the collective West. 3/3

isw.pub/UkrWar12937123…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 27
The continuing of #Russian offensive operations around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka, as well as along the #Luhansk and western #Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that #Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war.

isw.pub/UkrWar032623 ImageImageImage
It is not a given, nevertheless, that #Putin will continue fighting regardless of cost until the day he dies.

Putin is nevertheless putting no terms for negotiation on the table now other than #Russia’s total success. 2/
The choices before #Ukraine and its Western backers at this time are thus relatively straightforward:

(1) Ukraine can unilaterally cease fighting even as #Russian attacks by ground and air continue, which would lead to disastrous defeat. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 26
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin accused Russian authorities on March 25 of rewriting the history of the war in #Ukraine to cut out Wagner.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523
#Prigozhin claimed that unspecified #Russian authorities forced state-controlled media outlet RT—which has consistently promoted #Wagner operations in #Ukraine—to cut the first half of a film on the role of Russian convicts in the war because it centered on the Wagner Group. 2/
#Prigozhin claimed that #Russian authorities want to convince the populace that “pomaded generals” in fancy offices really won the war. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 26
#Ukrainian and Western officials offered various views of the state of the #Russian offensive in #Bakhmut on March 25, but all are consistent with the assessment that the Russian effort around Bakhmut is likely culminating.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523
#Russian forces may continue to attack #Bakhmut frequently and aggressively even if the offensive has culminated with little to no success, as ISW has previously assessed, as culmination does not mean the absence of fighting. 2/
#Russian attacks in and around #Bakhmut may resume at high levels without generating significant new gains if conventional Russian forces do, in fact, enter the fray. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 24
#Prigozhin also denied the #Kremlin’s claims that #Russia is fighting #NATO in #Ukraine and questioned whether there are actually Nazis in Ukraine as the Kremlin constantly claims. isw.pub/UkrWar032323
2/ #Prigozhin stated that #Russia is fighting “exclusively with #Ukrainians” who are equipped with #NATO-provided equipment and some “russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support #Ukraine - but not NATO itself.
3/ #Prigozhin also noted that #Russian officials most likely knew that #NATO would offer #Ukraine military aid, because “it is ridiculous to think that when [#Russia] decided to conduct this special military operation it did not account for NATO’s help to Ukraine.”
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 24
NEW: #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out of fear of completely losing his mercenary force in #Bakhmut.

Latest on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats : isw.pub/UkrWar032323
2/ #Prigozhin voiced his concerns about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern UKR during a 23-minute interview on March 23 in which he claimed that UKR has 200,000 reserves concentrating to attack along the entire eastern frontline, into Belgorod Oblast, & in Bakhmut.
3/ #Prigozhin also claimed that the Ukrainians currently have 80,000 troops in #Bakhmut, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka to counterattack Bakhmut – a claim that former Russian officer Igor #Girkin observed was dubious.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 23
The “tempo” of the Russian offensive in #Bakhmut “appears to be slowing,” said ISW Wednesday in its latest update.

However, Russian forces are currently increasing the tempo of operations around #Avdiivka aiming to encircle the town, the Institute added.

cnbc.com/2023/03/23/ukr…
2/ "It is possible that Russian forces are [focusing on #Avdiivka] at the expense of their operations around #Bakhmut and the stalled offensive around #Vuhledar," we wrote last night.
3/ "Russian forces appear to be drawing more combat power to the #Avdiivka area which may allow them to increase their rate of advance, although there were no confirmed Russian advances in the area on March 22."
Read 4 tweets

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