#Ukrainian and Western officials offered various views of the state of the #Russian offensive in #Bakhmut on March 25, but all are consistent with the assessment that the Russian effort around Bakhmut is likely culminating.
#Russian forces may continue to attack #Bakhmut frequently and aggressively even if the offensive has culminated with little to no success, as ISW has previously assessed, as culmination does not mean the absence of fighting. 2/
#Russian attacks in and around #Bakhmut may resume at high levels without generating significant new gains if conventional Russian forces do, in fact, enter the fray. 3/
The commitment of conventional reserves could even prevent the attack from culminating and generate operationally significant advances or persuade #Ukrainian forces to withdraw, although ISW regards those eventualities as unlikely at this time. 4/4
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The continuing of #Russian offensive operations around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka, as well as along the #Luhansk and western #Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that #Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war.
#Prigozhin claimed that unspecified #Russian authorities forced state-controlled media outlet RT—which has consistently promoted #Wagner operations in #Ukraine—to cut the first half of a film on the role of Russian convicts in the war because it centered on the Wagner Group. 2/
#Prigozhin claimed that #Russian authorities want to convince the populace that “pomaded generals” in fancy offices really won the war. 3/
2/ #Prigozhin stated that #Russia is fighting “exclusively with #Ukrainians” who are equipped with #NATO-provided equipment and some “russophobic” mercenaries who voluntarily support #Ukraine - but not NATO itself.
3/ #Prigozhin also noted that #Russian officials most likely knew that #NATO would offer #Ukraine military aid, because “it is ridiculous to think that when [#Russia] decided to conduct this special military operation it did not account for NATO’s help to Ukraine.”
NEW: #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric towards the #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely out of fear of completely losing his mercenary force in #Bakhmut.
2/ #Prigozhin voiced his concerns about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern UKR during a 23-minute interview on March 23 in which he claimed that UKR has 200,000 reserves concentrating to attack along the entire eastern frontline, into Belgorod Oblast, & in Bakhmut.
3/ #Prigozhin also claimed that the Ukrainians currently have 80,000 troops in #Bakhmut, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka to counterattack Bakhmut – a claim that former Russian officer Igor #Girkin observed was dubious.
2/ "It is possible that Russian forces are [focusing on #Avdiivka] at the expense of their operations around #Bakhmut and the stalled offensive around #Vuhledar," we wrote last night.
3/ "Russian forces appear to be drawing more combat power to the #Avdiivka area which may allow them to increase their rate of advance, although there were no confirmed Russian advances in the area on March 22."
#Russian forces may be deploying significantly outdated T-54 and T-55 tanks from long-term storage to #Ukraine to compensate for significant armored vehicle losses. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar032223
2/ The deployment of inferior equipment to replenish the #Russian military's ability to conduct mechanized maneuver warfare may prompt a further degradation of Russian manpower in #Ukraine.
3/ #Russian forces are unlikely to achieve preferable resource attrition rates on the grounds that T-54/55 are cheaper than anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) ammunition, as some have argued. isw.pub/UkrWar032223