New: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31.
Chief of the #Russian General Staff Valery #Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing #Donetsk Oblast. 2/
#Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western #Donetsk Oblast. 3/
The UK MoD observed that #Gerasimov has failed to extend 🇷🇺 ctrl over #Donbas during his time as the theater commander in 🇺🇦, & #Ukrainian intelligence rep. Andriy Yusov stated that Gerasimov missed the #Kremlin’s deadline to capture Donbas by Mar. 31. 4/4 isw.pub/UkrWar040123
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New: Today's report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2. Fomin’s assassination may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle.
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating 🇷🇺's info space since the start of 🇷🇺's full-scale invasion of 🇺🇦.
#Fomin’s assassination at a #Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the #Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the #Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense. 3/4
The new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) paints the West as anti-#Russian & internationally destabilizing to a far greater extent than 🇷🇺's previous 2016 FPC, explicitly stating that the US & its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening 🇷🇺.
The new document also heavily stresses #Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order & subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the US’ supposed dominance in world affairs. 2/
The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with #Russia and that a desired multipolar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries. 3/
#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.
The start of the new conscription period, even with a slightly increased number of conscripts, may actually reduce #Russian training capacity for reservists and other personnel recruited via crypto-mobilization campaigns.
#Chechen Republic Head Ramzan #Kadyrov’s demonstrative response to an attack on a police station in Chechnya suggests that he may be concerned about the stability of his authoritarian rule. 1/
Kadyrov published footage of himself, his 15-year-old son, and an entourage of Chechen officials and security personnel visiting the scene of the attack and inspecting the mangled bodies of the assailants. 2/
The fact that #Kadyrov’s response to the attack was so immediate and heavy-handed suggests that he is concerned about the potential for internal resistance within Chechnya to undermine his authoritarian rule of the autonomous republic. 3/
#Russian authorities arrested Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) naval department head Colonel Sergey Volkov on Mar. 29 for corruption-related charges in connection with the sale of low-quality radar systems at heavily inflated prices. 1/
The #Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and #Rosgvardia recently launched a criminal case against the Deputy Commander of the Rosgvardia’s Central District on March 20 for corruption-related charges. 2/
The criminal proceedings are notable because commanders of conventional #Russian forces have not been fired, let alone arrested, since the start of #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine at the same rate or in such high-profile circumstances as the #Rosgvardia cases. 3/