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@TheStudyofWar
Apr 2 • 4 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
New: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar040123
Chief of the #Russian General Staff Valery #Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing #Donetsk Oblast. 2/
#Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western #Donetsk Oblast. 3/
The UK MoD observed that #Gerasimov has failed to extend 🇷🇺 ctrl over #Donbas during his time as the theater commander in 🇺🇦, & #Ukrainian intelligence rep. Andriy Yusov stated that Gerasimov missed the #Kremlin’s deadline to capture Donbas by Mar. 31. 4/4 isw.pub/UkrWar040123

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Apr 3
New: Today's report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2. Fomin’s assassination may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle.

isw.pub/UkrWar040223 Image
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating 🇷🇺's info space since the start of 🇷🇺's full-scale invasion of 🇺🇦.
#Fomin’s assassination at a #Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the #Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the #Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 1
The new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) paints the West as anti-#Russian & internationally destabilizing to a far greater extent than 🇷🇺's previous 2016 FPC, explicitly stating that the US & its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening 🇷🇺.

isw.pub/UkrWar033123
The new document also heavily stresses #Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order & subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the US’ supposed dominance in world affairs. 2/
The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with #Russia and that a desired multipolar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 31
#Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in #Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar033023
#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 31
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar033023
#Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 #Russian men.

Russia may use #Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.

isw.pub/UkrWar033023
The start of the new conscription period, even with a slightly increased number of conscripts, may actually reduce #Russian training capacity for reservists and other personnel recruited via crypto-mobilization campaigns.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 30
March 29 Assessment Highlight:

#Chechen Republic Head Ramzan #Kadyrov’s demonstrative response to an attack on a police station in Chechnya suggests that he may be concerned about the stability of his authoritarian rule. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032923 Image
Kadyrov published footage of himself, his 15-year-old son, and an entourage of Chechen officials and security personnel visiting the scene of the attack and inspecting the mangled bodies of the assailants. 2/
The fact that #Kadyrov’s response to the attack was so immediate and heavy-handed suggests that he is concerned about the potential for internal resistance within Chechnya to undermine his authoritarian rule of the autonomous republic. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 30
#Russian authorities arrested Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) naval department head Colonel Sergey Volkov on Mar. 29 for corruption-related charges in connection with the sale of low-quality radar systems at heavily inflated prices. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032923
The #Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and #Rosgvardia recently launched a criminal case against the Deputy Commander of the Rosgvardia’s Central District on March 20 for corruption-related charges. 2/
The criminal proceedings are notable because commanders of conventional #Russian forces have not been fired, let alone arrested, since the start of #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine at the same rate or in such high-profile circumstances as the #Rosgvardia cases. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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