Thread by @LossandDamage

1/14.📜NEW PAPER: From @AndrewKingClim, @KimtaiJoy, @harrinluke & @ClimateGrose highlights why event attribution is not yet a good way to determine who will receive $$$'s from the #LossAndDamage Fund agreed at #COP27 — An alternative strategy is needed!

🔗nature.com/articles/s4155…

2/14. Key takeaways on why we cant use it include:

1⃣ Climate models primarily simulate processes in the atmosphere and ocean. They don’t directly simulate the #LossAndDamage caused by an extreme weather event such as how many people died due to a heatwave.

3/14. 2⃣ To simulate the effects of an extreme event, such as the loss of life or infrastructure, the exact extent to which weather components such as temperature and rainfall that caused #LossAndDamage need to be known. In some cases, this can be determined...

4/14. However, this requires high-quality data, such as hospital admissions, which are rarely available in most parts of the world.

5/14. 3⃣Climate models are not good at simulating extreme events like thunderstorms or extreme winds. because such they are sporadic and tend to occur across small areas. This makes them harder to model than events such as heatwaves that affect large areas.

6/14. 4⃣Event attribution is not yet able to estimate how the #ClimateCrisis causes #LossAndDamage associated with compound extreme events where more than one extreme event occurs simultaneously in neighbouring regions, or consecutively in a single region.

7/14. Making it clear that event attribution is not yet advanced enough to calculate #LossAndDamage from #ClimateChange, the authors detail the following possible ways forward:

8/14. 1⃣ Help developing countries use event attribution techniques: to date, event attribution has largely been conducted by wealthy countries in their own regions.

9/14. 2⃣ Address more types of extreme events: tornadoes, hailstorms and lightning are largely beyond the capability of climate models used in event attribution because they are localised and complex. New techniques to examine these events should be attempted.

10/14. 3⃣ More research into the impacts and costs of extreme events: few studies have attempted to attribute the costs of extreme events to #ClimateChange. Further efforts are needed, especially in low-income nations

11/14. 4⃣ Combine event attribution with other knowledge: scientists and experts in Humanitarian Assistance and policymaking must collaborate on a strategy for using event attribution information...

12/14. Better understanding of the needs of policymakers and the limitations of event attribution science could lead to more useful studies.

13/14. Concluding the authors advise that putting too much reliance on event attribution is a risky strategy & highlight that #LossAndDamage finance from richer nations is vital to helping climate vulnerable nations in the #GlobalSouth manage the growing burden of #ClimateHarms.

14/14. 📜Read the paper here: nature.com/articles/s4155…

📰Read an accompanying @ConversationUK article from the authors here: theconversation.com/poorer-countri…