Thread by @docrussjackson

#THREAD

Excellent new piece in the (paywalled) @FT from @jburnmurdoch on #diversity, #racism, & #immigration: 'Progressives are winning the immigration debate — but it doesn’t feel like it'.

John Burn-Murdoch explores the data, & possible explanations.

ft.com/content/b743e1…

"Remember the rise of the right? First #Brexit, then Trump, then a wave of rightwing populism broke over Europe. There were dozens of news articles on the “rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment”. Except it turns out that in the west, 2016 was a high water mark for such views."

"The most dramatic shifts have come in the US, Canada and, in particular, Britain, where the share of people saying there should be strict limits — if not an outright ban — on immigration has more than halved from 66% on the eve of the EU referendum to 31% last year." 🇬🇧

"These trends may be a direct reaction to the rise of rightwing populism, according to a new paper by political scientists James Dennison & Alexander Kustov."

Dennison & Kustov "theorise that the unexpected success of anti-immigration politics may have shocked previously complacent moderates into vocalising their support for diversity. We see similar shifts in the public’s attitude towards members of other ethnic groups & faiths."

"Just 3% of Americans and 2% of Britons say they would not want someone of a different race as a neighbour, with only Sweden scoring lower across the developed world. Discomfort with people from other faiths falls to just 3% and 1% in the US and the UK respectively." 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇸🇪

"The data paints a picture of countries that are increasingly diverse — and increasingly relaxed about that fact. Yet it can often feel like things are going backwards."

"Mentions of terms that suggest ethnic prejudice have rocketed in western media over the past six to seven years, according to new research by David Rozado, an associate professor at the New Zealand Institute of Skills and Technology."

arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/pape…

"In the west, concern about racial injustice is rising farthest & fastest in the UK, US & Can, countries where prejudice has reportedly fallen farthest & fastest. It’s a 'progressive paradox': the section of society whose values are clearly winning out remains deeply disquieted."

"So why is this progress so rarely & reluctantly recognised? One factor is the link between diversity & resulting #solidarity with different racial groups. A 2020 study showed the more ethnic diversity someone encounters, the more they view people of different races positively."

"Racial stereotypes & hostility build when someone only encounters people from few, if any, other ethnic groups."

(Encountering people from different backgrounds may limit the negative effects outlined in Tajfel & Turner's 'social identity theory'):

https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1504066513967681536?s=20

"Considering Britain, the US and Canada are among the most diverse countries in the west and have been for some time, the attendant increase in racial #solidarity might be why they have seen the steepest increases in concern about racial injustice." 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇨🇦

"But given that right-wing politicians use inflammatory racial language when diversity is increasing, aggregate levels of tolerance and isolated incidents of intolerance will often rise simultaneously."

https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1642528050507071491?s=20

"Dennison and Kustov suggest that while populist phenomena such as #Brexit and the election of #Trump led moderates to reassert their support for diversity, they also emboldened the most prejudiced — as measured by spikes in hate crimes."

@jburnmurdoch's analysis of the data from the World Values Survey "suggests that this may be a particular issue in the United States".

Here's my own take on the WVS survey:

https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1636016560782426115?s=20Despite

"Americans as a whole rank among the most comfortable with diversity, (yet) 12 per cent of US ethnic minorities say they “very frequently” encounter racist behaviour in their neighbourhood, the highest figure among 19 countries surveyed."

"In the UK, that figure is 5% — the lowest in Europe, but still 5% too high. Statistics like these sum up the 'progressive paradox'.: (On one hand) Britain, along with other western nations, has made huge strides & is now one of the most happily diverse societies in the world";

However, (on the other hand) "greater racial cohesion brings increased sensitivity to racial injustice. What is sometimes divisively referred to as the “great awokening” is, in fact, a rational response to a positive trend." - John Burn-Murdoch.

runnymedetrust.org/publications/f…

With apologies to @jburnmurdoch & the @FT, this #THREAD quotes in full this excellent & important paywalled article. Please consider supporting or subscribing to the FT. 🙏

I've occasionally linked my own threads & graphics to provide additional context.

ft.com/content/b743e1…

Another indicator of shifting attitudes can be gleaned for @YouGov's polling following the incident at the White Hart Inn, raided by Police for displaying golliwogs, which has now closed after Heineken & Carlsberg told the pub to stop serving its lager.

https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1654044649277870080?s=20

Six years ago, a majority said selling or displaying a golliwog doll wasn’t racist. Now it’s a minority. True, that minority still makes up nearly half the population, but a 15-point drop from 63% to 48% in a little over half a decade seems pretty significant.

The proportion of people who think it is racist to sell or display a golliwog has gone up from a fifth to just over a quarter (from 20% to 27%), with another 25% (up from 17% in 2017) opting for “don’t know”.

theconversation.com/essex-pub-disp…

There’s been a similar “progressive” shift when it comes to whether selling or displaying golliwogs is or isn’t acceptable. The proportion of people thinking it acceptable has dropped 14 points from 53% to 39% since 2017, the proportion who think it isn’t rising from 27% to 34%.

Age continues to play a huge part in all this: a stunning 74% of those aged 65 and over continue to insist that selling or displaying a golliwog isn’t racist – a view confined to a mere 13% of 18 to 24-year-olds.

Among the older group, 64% say it’s acceptable to display a golliwog. Only 10% of the younger group agree. Education also continues to matter: twice as many graduates (42% – up 11% on 2017) as non-graduates (21%) say it’s racist.

There are, too, significant differences on both counts between those living in an ethnically diverse areas & between middle & working-class people: those living in London, & middle-class people are more likely to brand the selling or display of golliwogs as racist & unacceptable.

What’s most striking, though, is the difference partisanship still plays in people’s attitudes.

Only 13% of Conservative supporters and people who voted leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum think selling or displaying golliwogs is racist.

That figure (more or less depressingly, depending on your point of view) represents an insignificant change on six years ago. It is also dwarfed by the 47% of Labour supporters and 42% of remain voters who think it is racist to display golliwogs.

Essentially, the times are changing - unless you’re old, less-educated, a Tory, a Leaver, or a certain Essex ex-pub owner – in which case you’re more likely to be heard singing the same old antiquated song, & will probably continue to do so until your voice falls silent, forever.