#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇 ImageImage
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
3. obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the #housing market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when #mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.
4. Similarly #retail ( $WMT, $TGT) #earnings aren‘t truly concerning – they merely underline the weakening #consumer, and more bleak expectations for Q2 figures.
The same for #realestate not being out of the woods.
For now, the #stockmarket advance remains concentrated in the
5. top 10 (chiefly #tech) stocks, and Wednesday‘s prospects aren‘t disastrous – with no overnight fall even if #USD broke higher to 102.80, I‘m looking for another tight range muddle through day where 4,149 followed by 4,154 stand in the way, and #ES close clearly below 4,136
6. would be a nice bearish daily victory in this long lasting tight #ES #SPX range. Watching today‘s rotations chiefly for clues.

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More from @Monica___K

May 18
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
2. Back when I took the MT bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant #banks had fallen, $CS was getting back on the radar screen, #deposit outflows continued, and demand for the #Fed emergency programs was rising.
It was questionable whether $KRE and $XLF
3. would stabilize.
The incentives for #deposit outflows were still present (#Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term #yields kept solidly above 5%, #Fed balance sheet kept declining, #M2 and #margin debt shrinking while consumer #inflation
Read 17 tweets
May 16
#ES close almost 4,149 resistance, $RSP $IWM improvements are key bullish achievements, but I doubt would be confirmed by rising #bonds.
Bit of a daily rotation into #cyclicals say that would be hard.
Key today - #retailsales
Quote from Sunday:
THREAD 👇
2. "I'm ooking for a meaningful undershoot on Tuesday, especially in core #retailsales turning even slightly negative".
Look at China's uneven recovery (18% vs 21% expected retail sales YoY), and compare then to situations when fiscal and monetary policy work in opposite ways.
3. Looking at the relative $XLY direction, I'm afraid #discretionaries are starting to lose their leading shine.
It's rather $XLC $XLV $XLU that are either leading or improving while $XLK deteriorates under the surface (also in terms of #NDX market breadth) just like $XLY.
Read 5 tweets
May 15
Now some company #earnings

THREAD 👇

1. After correct predictions of $TSLA, $AAPL earnings (market impact), I was asked about $WMT and $TGT – on a company level, I of course expect $WMT to do considerably better than $TGT.
Note though $XRT weak chart posture, and how
2. relatively well $XLY is still doing. Therefore, I‘m looking for especially $WMT beat on profits, less so on revenue (if volume sales are taken into account) and darkening guidance – these earnings won‘t send #ES lower while $TGT effect would be more neutral.
3. As for $HD, this one could be weaknest out of the three tickers mentioned, no matter how well $XHB is doing. I‘m looking for the relative calm in #realestate to go as it‘s impossible to the supply to be brought into the market when favorable #mortgage rates
Read 4 tweets

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