Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #retailsales

Most recents (8)

Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
2. Back when I took the MT bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant #banks had fallen, $CS was getting back on the radar screen, #deposit outflows continued, and demand for the #Fed emergency programs was rising.
It was questionable whether $KRE and $XLF
3. would stabilize.
The incentives for #deposit outflows were still present (#Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term #yields kept solidly above 5%, #Fed balance sheet kept declining, #M2 and #margin debt shrinking while consumer #inflation
Read 17 tweets
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇 ImageImage
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
3. obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the #housing market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when #mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.
Read 6 tweets
#ES close almost 4,149 resistance, $RSP $IWM improvements are key bullish achievements, but I doubt would be confirmed by rising #bonds.
Bit of a daily rotation into #cyclicals say that would be hard.
Key today - #retailsales
Quote from Sunday:
2. "I'm ooking for a meaningful undershoot on Tuesday, especially in core #retailsales turning even slightly negative".
Look at China's uneven recovery (18% vs 21% expected retail sales YoY), and compare then to situations when fiscal and monetary policy work in opposite ways.
3. Looking at the relative $XLY direction, I'm afraid #discretionaries are starting to lose their leading shine.
It's rather $XLC $XLV $XLU that are either leading or improving while $XLK deteriorates under the surface (also in terms of #NDX market breadth) just like $XLY.
Read 5 tweets
Verified by #RetailSales

Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household rose 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) in January Image
In 2021 the bottom income group spent 38% of their total expenditure on food and shelter combined Image
deposits remain above 2019 levels Image
Read 5 tweets
The fastest-growing developed economy in the West, the US, has just released #growth figures for Q3: 2% annualized (down from Q2 recovery of 6.7%).
[Reminder: growth<0 is #recession, low growth is #stagnation.]

It also released the corresponding #inflation of 5.7%.

Everything is temporary, depending on chosen timescale!…
[#Fed] statement kept the word “transitory” to describe price increases that are running at a 30-year high, though it qualified the term somewhat by saying pressures are “expected to” be temporary.
Today’s US data for Q3:
Unit labour costs (QoQ) is +8.3% (vs 1.1% in Q2).
Read 33 tweets
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup#demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.… Image
Read 7 tweets
Data on #China’s Macro #Economy in March:
1. The economy picked up - manufacturing #PMI was 50.5%, 1.3% up from February and down 1% year-on-year;
2. #Industrial growth picked up - added value of industries above designated size rose by 8.5% year-on-year, 3.2% up from February;
3. #Consumption picked up - #retailsales rose by 8.7% year-on-year, 0.5% up from February;
4. Fixed #asset and #infrastructure #investment rebounded – from January to March, total fixed asset investment was up by 6.3% year-on-year, 0.2% higher than the first 2 months;
5. #Exports saw positive growth, while #imports continued to fall - dollar-denominated exports grew by 14.2% year-on-year, while imports fell by 7.6%;
6. #CPI and #PPI both picked up – CPI up by 2.3% year-on-year, and PPI, 0.4%.…
Read 3 tweets

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