Thread by @doctorow

Is it legal for Congress to #default on the US #NationalDebt? It depends on who you ask. There are a ton of good legal arguments for and against, so perhaps it comes down to what the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, partisan) #SupremeCourt says?

nytimes.com/2023/05/04/opi…

1/

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

pluralistic.net/2023/05/26/min…

2/

In those terms, it seems like the game is over. #Biden should just surrender, hand the most extreme wing of the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, authoritarian) #GOP everything, even if doing so will push Biden's approval rating lower, dangerously close to the next election.

3/

In this telling, Republicans have already won. The decision to let the #GOP steal three Supreme Court seats, combined with the decision not to end the #DebtCeiling charade when Dems had the majorities to do so, means that from now on, we live in the GOP's #ShitholeCountry.

4/

A land where the only "freedoms" are freedom to control others' bodily autonomy and gender expression; freedom to exploit labor; the freedom to censor ideas that challenge #WhiteNationalism and imperialism; and freedom to menace with assault weapons:

nytimes.com/2023/05/19/opi…

5/

So we're screwed. Might as well dig a hole, climb inside, and pull the dirt in on top of us.

Fuck that.

There's clear majorities in support of the #BuildBackBetter agenda, and even the watered down Machin Synematic Universe version we got through the #InfrastructureBill.

6/

If the Dems could mobilize voters - by convincing them that they were committed to *doing things* rather than capitulating - they could win strong majorities in 2024.

7/

Even in gerrymandered, antimajoritarian America, electoral wins are possible - they require overwhelming turnout, not 50.01% "victories" favored by "data-driven" Dem consultants (leaving the party incapable of governing, so monsters like #JoeManchin hold the nation hostage).

8/

Maybe I'm wrong and doing things won't mobilize voters. But if we're already stipulating that without large majorities, the real President is the three-headed monster (#Gorsuch, #Thomas, and #Roberts), and the billionaires who yank their chains, then what do we have to lose?

9/

There are a lot of things that Biden could try to get through the debt ceiling crisis without giving up on the promises he made to the American people and the programs the American Congress passed. Here's a couple interesting ones, courtesy of Brad @delong:

10/

* "The #FederalReserve might simply record a negative balance in the #Treasury account," then create an "overdraft" account and pay the US's obligations out of it;

11/

* The Fed could tell banks trying to clear US checks they didn't clear, and the banks could tell depositors, " your Treasury check bounced, but don't worry, we've credited your account anyway, and will handle this, and please be very grateful to us."

braddelong.substack.com/p/debt-ceiling…

12/

Of course, there's other possibilities: Biden could issue an #ExecutiveOrder stating the Debt Ceiling violates the #14thAmendment. Or violates the #ContractsClause. Or he could order the Treasury to issue #CouponFreeBonds. Or he could #MintTheCoin:

theverge.com/2023/5/23/2373…

13/

Yes, each of these would end up in front of the (degraded, corrupt, illegitimate, partisan) Supreme Court, who would very likely strike them down.

But writing for @TheProspect, @ryanlcooper argues that this could still be sound tactics:

prospect.org/economy/2023-0…

14/

If Biden does something about the debt default and the Supremes block it, then the default is *their* fault. What's more, it's a mess they absolutely do *not* want to get into, like deciding which of the US's creditors will and won't get paid when they sue over the default.

15/

If the court won't do it, will they give Biden the power to "just pick and choose what gets paid? That would give him a line-item veto for the entire budget and the Court already ruled that a law explicitly giving him that power is unconstitutional":

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_v…

16/

If the Supremes kill Biden's attempt to resolve the budget crisis, then it becomes SCOTUS's problem, as everyone owed a federal payment "say, Social Security beneficiaries or military contractors," sues - "There would be tens of millions of such potential litigants."

17/

So what should Biden do?

Call their bluff.

First, mint the coin. If the court strikes that down, issue coupon-free bonds. If the court strikes *that* down, declare debt ceilings to violate the 14th Amendment.

18/

If the court strikes *that* down, declare it to violate the Contracts Clause. Keep at it. Throw in everything and the kitchen sink - but *never* give into the GOP's demand for Biden to violate his promise and tear up laws establishing programs that make our lives better.

19/

This is what Lincoln did when the Supreme Court blocked his attempts to end slavery. It's what #FDR did when they blocked the #NewDeal. The court doesn't have an army, it can't force its decisions on the American people.

20/

It doesn't have a bureaucratic workforce and it can't take over the administrative branch - hell, they don't even have the keys to the office buildings.

21/

The Supreme Court's power comes from its legitimacy, not force of arms, and while they may not act like it, the Supremes know in their bones that without legitimacy, they are nothing:

pluralistic.net/2023/03/25/con…

22/

The justices in stolen seats have made it clear they consider themselves to be "a de facto super-legislature that rules in favor of its own partisan policy objectives based on tendentious up-is-down reasoning or no reasoning at all." *This is an illegitimate proposition*.

23/

The Supreme Court can't get any *less* legitimate. If Biden were to ignore the Supremes and make good law in the teeth of their pronouncements, it couldn't make the situation any worse than it is today.

24/

The Supremes have set themselves against labor, climate resiliency, bodily autonomy, political accountability, the rule of law itself. We should not - we *must* not - cede the power to overrule democratically elected lawmakers and the will of the people.

25/

As Cooper says, Biden should tell the Supremes to go pound sand and then "raise holy hell in speeches and the press to make clear the grotesque irresponsibility of what is happening":

26/

> Here’s an institution trying to cause a completely pointless national default, destroying untold jobs, businesses, and the credit rating of the country, whose elite members are all unelected, where five members of the majority were appointed by a president...

27/

> ...who took office after losing the popular vote, and one of whom occupies a blatantly stolen seat. Here’s an institution that has struck down anti-corruption laws by the bushel and is openly rolling in oligarch graft like Scrooge McDuck...

28/

> ...while declaring itself to be immune from oversight. All that would add to the political pressure on the justices.

If Biden can't do well for the American people they they will not turn out in the massive majorities that Democrats need to get minimal majorities.

29/

If Biden can't do well for the American people, then Biden - who would lose an election to either Ron DeSantis *or* Donald Trump if it were called today - will turn America's predators loose on its people for at least four more years:

jacobin.com/2023/05/2024-p…

30/

And let's face it, it'll be Trump. DeSantis is dead in the water. The GOP is the party of swivel-eyed loons who've been whipped into a terrorized frenzy by an evil, crapulent senescent Australian billionaire and his freak henchmen, like the taint-tanning frozen food failson.

31/

They aren't going to elect "smart Trump." They like "stupid Trump" (AKA "Trump") too much.

32/

Image:
Joe Ravi (modified)
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pano…

CC BY-SA 3.0
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa…

eof/