Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #default

Most recents (9)

#Conte sale al Quirinale per il #ConteTer, ma in parlamento non ottiene i voti. È l’ora del #GovernoDraghi.

L’ex presidente #Bce riceve l'incarico dal Presidente della repubblica, fa il suo discorso programmatico parlando di #generazioni future, di #produttività, #sostenibilità.
Umiltà e pragmatismo. Di #ZombieEconomics e #DebitoCattivo.

In Camera e Senato si spellano le mani, i giornali riportano commenti estasiati e prolisse biografie che iniziano dal collegio dei gesuiti per passare dal Britannia.

Il Paese è in #LunaDiMiele.
Honey moon con sondaggi pro Draghi che fanno invidia a Xi Jinping nel politburo.

Ottiene la fiducia con percentuali bulgare: lo ha votato tre quarti del parlamento. Uniche mosche bianche, guardate con spregio dai giornalisti in Transatlantico, sono solo un paio di partiti
Read 17 tweets
Thread
Nuova definizione di #default
Dal 1° gennaio 2021 entra in vigore la nuova definizione di default prevista dal Regolamento europeo relativo ai requisiti prudenziali per gli enti creditizi e le imprese di investimento.
La nuova definizione non modifica nella sostanza le segnalazioni alla Centrale dei Rischi, utilizzate dagli intermediari nel processo di valutazione del “merito di credito” della clientela.
Riguarda esclusivamente il modo con cui le banche e gli intermediari finanziari devono classificare i clienti a fini prudenziali, ossia ai fini del calcolo dei requisiti patrimoniali minimi obbligatori per le banche e gli intermediari finanziari.
Read 6 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
S&P Global Ratings provides an odyssey length bullet point journey through the global credit landscape here: spglobal.com/ratings/en/res… #CorporateCredit #Macro #Risks A few takeaways...1/4
2/4 Economic/Financial conditions & #credit outlooks...#US outlook, #Europe outlook...#Macro #Risks ImageImageImageImage
3/4 #EMs outlook...#Auto industry outlook...#Germany corporates outlook...2020 global corporate #defaults jump above total 2019 levels in 5 months led by the #US...#Macro #Risks ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Extraordinary times when a taxable #corporate issuer ($AMZN) can fund for three years at 40 basis points! Still, we don’t think there’s much of a chance of #default in three years and the short-term spread to comparable @USTreasury notes is reasonable, given present conditions. Image
But is this the right price to be funding companies longer-term, versus their long-term #earnings, and cash flow #yields available in #equity markets? Absolutely not! So, that suggests that the forward curves for many of the rates #markets are priced incorrectly, in our view.
We think all of this implies that balance in #portfolios is a harder and harder ideal to achieve, but over the intermediate- to long-term, is still one that’s well rewarded.
Read 3 tweets
I'm fascinated by how we can leverage evidence to inform behavior change. A thread based on literature & our #design of spaces & processes in high-stakes environments @AdvPerformHD @HumanFact0rz @ASPphysician @jyangstar 1/
2/ After the wkd, its clear some in Ontario are experiencing quarantine fatigue (bit.ly/2TFbbRw). Below are thoughts combining work from change management (amzn.to/3c2qWbx), behavior psych (bit.ly/3d0yIUp), risk perception (Kahneman) & #harmreduction
3/ Current state = #publichealth experts tell us that we cannot return to our previous way of life despite many who wish to do so. RESULT = need for substantial behaviour change. CHALLENGE = people don't like to change. #default & familiar behaviour is preferred
Read 17 tweets
Il fuoco di sbarramento in Italia contro il #Mes conferma i peggiori sospetti: che molti governanti non vogliono affatto fermare la corsa all’indebitamento: fino ad arrivare al default, a spese dei partner nell’#Euro. Risultato: lo #spread in rialzo, la zappa sui piedi.
Debiti mica per investire in istruzione, ricerca, infrastrutture, ma per carita’! Tutto in prepensionamento e Rdc che fa trovare 1000 posti di lavoro per 700mila beneficiati. Tanto secondo i Bagnai &Co la ricchezza si genera distribuendo helicopter money: Venezuela dixit.
Avanti verso il burrone.
Read 9 tweets
State Government Debt Risk - a history that repeats too often!

As the work on building Amravati, the new capital city AP, comes to a grinding halt, concerns emerge about Amravati (APCRDA) bonds held by Franklin MF (~Rs. 1000 Cr) and Birla MF (Rs. ~300 Cr). Thread 1/11
During the Chandrababu Govt, Amravati received political as well as financial patronage. Now, with Jagan Reddy being incharge of the state, the project is in shambles. World Bank & ADB pulled out of the project and the Government is looking for reasons to scrap it. 2/n
The bonds issued to support the financing needs of the project were subscribed by Franklin MF and Birla MF. The bonds are guaranteed by the AP Govt but it's not sure if the Govt would keep servicing the bonds. The risk of lending to a state govt has again come to the fore. 3/11
Read 19 tweets
La #TIR (Tasa Interna de Retorno) en escenarios de Default

Como sabemos, la TIR es la medida mas utilizada para la medición del rendimiento de los Bonos.

Sin embargo, hay casos donde no puede calcularse directamente contra el flujo de fondos del Prospecto del bono.
Uno de estos casos es el que estamos viviendo actualmente: el #Default.

El mercado opera los bonos asumiendo que:

1. No se pagará el flujo de fondo original
2. Habrá una negociación por #Canje de deuda, que demorará algunos años
3 Se Sufrirá un porcentaje de #Quita de Capital
En este caso, usar la TIR como medida de rentabilidad es un ejercicio matemático INGENUO, ya que pasa a ser una medida FICTICIA.

Entonces, ¿qué hacemos?

Principalmente dejar de medir con la TIR
Read 7 tweets

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