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Jun 3 5 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The #Russian MoD issued a second update about the June 1 #Shebekino, #Belgorod Oblast border raid, largely fixating on the timeliness and scope of the Russian response to the raid. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar060223
2/ The MoD claimed that additional Russian Western Military District (WMD) elements reinforced the border area within an hour of the start of the raid and conducted heavy air, artillery, and flamethrower strikes against the raiding units and their reserves.
3/ The MoD claimed that over 135 people & 35 vehicles conducted the raids & that various RU defensive efforts - including small arms fire & mines - repelled the raids. The MoD later celebrated the cmdr of an unspecified motorized rifle battalion for leading the defensive effort.
4/ The Russian MoD’s fixation on portraying Russian forces and the Russian military command as capable defenders of #Russia likely reflects internal and broader information space anxiety over the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive...
5/ ...as well as any reverberating informational impacts from any failures to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks. isw.pub/UkrWar060223

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Jun 4
#Donetsk Axis: #Avdiivka-Donetsk City

Russian forces on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line continued to focus their offensive efforts on #Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City) on June 3. isw.pub/UkrWar060323 ImageImage
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 14 Russian ground attacks in #Marinka and near Oleksandrivka (immediately south of #Donetsk City). The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces did not conduct ground attacks near #Avdiivka.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces gained some territory in northwestern #Marinka and that Russian forces will likely attempt to encircle the settlement in June.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
#Donetsk Axis: #Bakhmut

Regular #Russian forces have likely largely relieved #WagnerGroup forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.

#Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that 99 percent of his #Wagner units have left Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar060323 ImageImageImage
2/ The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that degraded Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) elements, including those of the 76th VDV Division, 106th VDV Division, and two unspecified brigades have deployed to the #Bakhmut area and are increasing their role in the area. Image
3/ A #Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and #Ukrainian forces are conducting positional engagements on the northern and southern flanks of #Bakhmut. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
#Prigozhin also seized on general Russian discontent with security on the #Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that #WagnerGroup forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar060323
2/ #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend #Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region.
3/ #Prigozhin justified his threat of insubordination by claiming that #Wagner aims to protect the Russian people, implying that Wagner will assume the role of border defender that the MoD should already occupy.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 4
#Prigozhin likely escalated his feud w/ the Russian MoD to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership, downplay his ongoing conflict w/ Chechen officials, & retain his initiative in the Russian info space following the capture of #Bakhmut. 🧵⬇️ isw.pub/UkrWar060323
2/ #Prigozhin alleged on June 2 that representatives of the MoD placed anti-tank mines and other explosive devices along routes that #Wagner forces were using to withdraw from #Bakhmut.
3/ #Prigozhin asserted that these charges were placed in rear areas with no Ukrainian activity and that the MoD likely meant for #Wagner forces to detonate the explosives in order to give Wagner a “public flogging.”
Read 12 tweets
Jun 3
NEW: #Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin escalated his feud with the #Russian Ministry of Defense.

More in our latest on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar060323 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr #Zelensky stated in a June 3 interview with the @WSJ that Ukraine is ready to launch a counteroffensive. Zelensky stated that #Ukraine “would like to have certain things, but … can’t wait for months” to start #counteroffensive operations.
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 3 that “military plans love silence” and that she will “discuss something else” in the meantime...
Read 5 tweets
Jun 3
Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the #Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture the small, almost leveled settlement of #Marinka west of #Donetsk. isw.pub/UkrWar060223 Image
2/ Russian forces have struggled to advance in #Marinka and advanced less than 2km from 2014-controlled territory around Marinka since the start of the full-scale invasion of #Ukraine, suggesting that this entire conversation is premature.
3/ The capture of #Bakhmut, despite offering no operational advantages, did allow the #Kremlin to present a Russian victory, if only temporarily, to the Russian public.
Read 5 tweets

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