Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Prigozhin also seized on general Russian discontent with security on the #Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that #WagnerGroup forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar060323

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1665152053755224065

2/ #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend #Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region.

3/ #Prigozhin justified his threat of insubordination by claiming that #Wagner aims to protect the Russian people, implying that Wagner will assume the role of border defender that the MoD should already occupy.

4/ #Prigozhin’s threats also indicate that he may aim for #Wagner forces to assume primary or sole responsibility for an axis in the Ukrainian theater now that Wagner forces have withdrawn from that role in the #Bakhmut area.

5/ Deploying #Wagner forces to the #Belgorod border would allow #Prigozhin to maintain his position as a commander of frontline forces without the grueling demands of conducting human wave-style frontal assaults against a heavily fortified Ukrainian city.

6/ #Prigozhin’s apparent threat to undertake military operations, even defensive ones, on Russian territory without the permission of the Russian MoD is astonishing if it is anything other than flamboyant rhetoric.

7/ It implies that #Prigozhin regards himself as able to use large military forces loyal to him at his own discretion & beyond the control of the actual military. #Putin would have to have tremendous confidence in Prigozhin’s loyalty to be at all comfortable w/ such a situation.