So the questions on the table now: if Democrats give @SenateMajLdr enough votes to pass the temporary funding measure through February 8th, can he be trusted to do as he promises and put an immigration bill on the floor by then?
And not just any bill. If McConnell gets the votes and then puts the insane Cotton bill on the floor with closed amendments, McConnell will burn his credibility with Senate Democrats for ever, and moderate Senate Dems will lose all their credibility with the rest of the caucus. 
Up to now, McConnell has given Democrats zero reason to trust him. He has been the most hyper-partisan Senate leader that I have ever observed, and I've been watching politics a long time. But there are risks for him and his party either way.
If @SenateMajLdr defies his nature and history and keeps his word by putting a reasonable, bipartisan immigration bill on the floor with open amendments, the far right xenophobe Trumpists will lose it. That could dampen turnout for Republicans in November.
If he stiffs the Democrats, we'll get another government shutdown next month, with no way out. Democrats will then only cut a second deal with McConnell if every one of them becomes clinically insane.
Trump doesn't really matter in this process. If McConnell still has a political soul left, what he would do is put a bill on the floor that can pass with a veto-proof majority, and that doesn't need Rand Paul or Mike Lee's votes. Trump at that point can sign, veto or go golfing.
There are risks for Democrats as well. If after all this they wind up with a bill that stiffs DREAMERs, ie making them sub-citizens by not allowing them to impart legal status to their parents, or that ends the visa lottery with no replacement, stiffing black immigrants...
...or ignores TPS, all the enthusiasm you've seen in the streets and on social media for a Democratic congress in November will dry up, and dry up quick. Democrats have to deliver not just a reopened government, but a GOOD BILL.
So high stakes here, folks. Feel free to throw in your comments below.
One more quick thing with a hat tip to my comment crew: if what gets voted through today is the same bill as last week, it includes a six-year CHIP extension. So Republicans will have 9 million fewer hostages to take by February 8th. That would be a clear win for Democrats.
Ok I lied - one MORE thing: this is an important test for the resistance and for activists too. If Democrats give Rs the vote, turning on them immediately would be way premature. The next step if you follow the King era civil rights model is to keep pressure on Democrats to get
a good and comprehensive immigration deal. The target date simply moves to February 8. Highly likely a DREAM Act passes. Despite the racist crazy ad the Trump campaign just ran, the vast majority of Americans right and left support the DREAMers. But will they and their supporters
also push for more, as @joseiswriting and @UndocuBlack and others have said. Will Dems settle for a deal that helps the DACA kids, but stiffs their parents, essentially making DREAMers second class citizens? Will immigrants from Trump's "shithole countries" get left out?
What about TPS and the diversity visa lottery? What happens to that? And will Republicans, particularly in the House, risk an uprising among their base voters by basically becoming hundreds of Marco Rubios and Jeb Bushes (before Rubio finked out on the gang of eight.)
What about veterans benefits, as @Clyburn is talking about right now? The national free clinic network? These bills always expand, and the additional asks always sink these bills. Do Democrats wind up swallowing Trump's immortal, stupid wall?
And even if the Senate succeeds, does Paul Ryan have the cojones to put an immigration bill on the House floor and defy the tea party caucus that now controls his party? Is he willing to risk being forced out, or having to find another job (rumor has it he wants to anyway.)
Legislating is hard work, folks. But it's even harder now that the Republican Party has been swallowed whole by far right extremists. There are still a handful of reasonable Republicans on Capitol Hill, but they are up against a tsunami of crazy in their caucus.
So this won't be easy and it won't be pretty. The question for activists on the left is, how to make it PRODUCTIVE. And how to win. Tick tock...!
Meant to way "immoral, stupid wall" not "immortal." Damn you Twitter with no way to edit! LOL
