Thread by @fascinatorfun

The is a must read to help bring together a practical understanding of both the single market AND the rôle of Customs in different legal arrangements.

Thank you @SamuelMarcLowe for drawing it to my attention.
@AlexChalkChelt @nikkirobson1 @Forty40Kings instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

2/. @jl_owen remind us that it is the four freedoms of the SM combined with the harmonisation of regulation, processes and legal oversight that has created the sophisticated and easy trading environment between member states.

3/ So, as we move away from this super harmonised highway that facilitates Trade & the movement of people it is worth remembering that each step away has consequences from widgets to people and legal oversight.

4/. If there is no FOM in N.Ireland but there is in the South then that creates a hard land Border. The CTA eases movement between the U.K. and Ireland for Irish and U.K. citizens, but does not deal with EU citizens arriving in the South under FOM, walking into the U.K. North

5/. We can’t avoid talking about Rules of Origin. (RoO).
Let’s start with a widget.
@KirstySNP takes on a widget journey, important for us as we export quite a lot of widgetty things to the EU.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/9604464…

6/. Here is a reminder of two different supply chains we currently operate just as an example.

A sofa made in Wales.

An automotive exhaust system.

A reminder about the modality of border crossing too.

7/. So we need to look a little deeper at Cumulative Rules of Origin because an object maybe made up of several widgets originating in different places with differing regulatory requirement & oversight.

medium.com/@SamuelMarcLow…

8/. The U.K. Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex reminds us that RoO is important when it comes to all those pesky EU 3rd country Trade Agreements that we’re going to be “rolled over” with such ease at midnight on 29.3.2019.

9/. Remember. It is the stated objective of this U.K. Government that we will become a 3rd country too on 29.3.2019. No longer a Party to the bilateral treaties and, as a 3rd country, no longer able to “cumulate” widgets from all over the EU as ours.

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/09/…

10/ Even assuming all countries were willing to “roll over” (& we know from Select Committee evidence that some have already indicated they are not) with unamended treaty terms they would be able to export to us but not us to them. They satisfy RoO terms. We do not.

11/. It’s worth remembering that our export trade with the EU/EEA & 3rd Country Trade combined accounts for approximately 62% of our exports.

Then there’s Trade with incoming 3rd Countries on Treaties signed but not ratified.

It is a myth that it will hurt them more than us

12/. Then there’s the Rest of the World.
There’s about 200 countries.
The EU has some sort of beneficial trading relationship with all but 7 of them.
As one expert in Select Committee, Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, from @ECIPE pointed out that just 1 phone call to all of them takes time

13/. When you have a spare hour it is well worth listening to this HofC SC session in some detail.

parliament.uk/business/commi…

13/. So DO we trade with the rest of the world purely on WTO terms as Brexiters claim, thus suggesting we will be perfectly fine if we “fall back on WTO terms”?

Well. No we don’t. Non tariff barriers to trade tend to be more costly, time consuming & problematic than tariff.

14/. To reduce or remove NTBs the EU has entered into a raft of about 1000 Treaties with 168 Countries around the world.

759 of those Treaties have a measurable application to the U.K. Hosuk Lee-Makiyama pointed out that every single category contained critical category work

15/. We really do need to know where we are re a state of readiness is the U.K. Goverment. After all, it is our lives, our financial well-being, our businesses well being and those of future generations that are at stake.

16/. There are 330 pieces of work being tracked in a secret data base in preparation for a hard Brexit. FOIs asking for information about them and the progress being made have been met by a blank refusal.

Here’s the NAO REPORT :-

nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

17/ Here is an article from The Times on the same subject.

thetimes.co.uk/article/secret…

18/
There’s about 7 months to go before this matter comes back to Parliament for scrutiny of the deal.

Yet the Government is proposing something quite novel outwith a CU whilst seemingly oblivious as to how this can meet with their obligations under the GFA.

Realism is required

19/. The previous tweets give an idea of the sheer staggering scale and complexity of the work to be undertaken.

Even if the Govt HAD committed to some realism and a CU there are numerous models, none alone solving the border issues, just reducing them.

rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaint…

20/. Here is a reminder of how even the Turkish model of a CU still creates barriers to trade and therefore hard border issues.

uktradeforum.net/2018/01/15/cus…

21/. It is VERY obvious to any careful person that the amount that can be achieved between now and 28.3.2019 let alone September 2018 is a mere chapter in a very large series of volumes of books.

3rd country transition is a VERY high risk strategy driven by reckless Brexiters.

22/. What possible gain can there be for the risks?

Are they so desperate to avoid the Off Shore tax transparency regulations? So desperate to prevent a change of heart in the country that they are willing to risk all?

We would be negotiating an Article 50 extension now.

23/.MEANWHILE the Government and MPs should reread the 7 principles in Public Life and use them to guide ALL decisions.

Country before Party. Selflessness. Leadership

Accountability and Openness to the public.

Honesty, Integrity and objectivity (Best evidence).

“This”. Darn it.