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Thread by @leashless: "A few reflections on strategy. Strategy comes from knowing things other people do not or cannot know. With identical knowledge, all that's l […]"

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A few reflections on strategy. Strategy comes from knowing things other people do not or cannot know. With identical knowledge, all that's left is a computation of tactical efficiency. Narratives and philosophy are relevant kinds of knowledge. Let me explain why.
Even in a game with no hidden pieces, things can be hidden by sheer complexity. Nothing is hidden in chess, there are no aces on top of the deck. It's all right there. The knowledge needed to win is buried under the massive range of possible moves.
Philosophy and strategy operate to reduce the work done to get through the mass of options. We can't compute our way through, but we know that a weak centre or empty triangles are bad. When things are the wrong shape or texture, it's aesthetics summarizing computation.
Experience aids strategy. "Regulators bat last" summarises 20 years of game between tech and government. You don't really need to know more: the crypto economy can't stabilize until the regulators have established and published their positions. THEN the real game begins.
So back to strategy. Strategy compresses computation. It's heuristic, and sometimes algorithmic. Or it builds around hidden knowledge to do otherwise-impossible things. "Knowing how to use your secrets for maximum impact" is a good way to essentialize strategy.
So let's think about crypto. My strategy has been to use my hidden knowledge (years in the field) to design a company @mattereum that ought to prosper whether crypto regulators are harsh or relaxed. Either way, smart contracts and law are here to stay. This is a simple strategy.
A more complex strategy was years of regular dinners in which all and sundry across crypto came to my house and talked. What came out of that was models (data compression) and a lexicon (even more DC) to accelerate our thinking. We know how to think about our area better.
So strategies can also be about dealing with other people's secrets. The SEC does not reveal its thinking early. One must model possible outcomes, or refuse to commit resources (say to a token sale) until the secrets are revealed. Those who bet on secret data can win or lose big.
My prediction is that the secret driven era of crypto is almost over. The regulators have played most of their cards, and the huge WTF moon math cryptography (i.e. ZKSNARKS) are mostly out in the open now. We are approaching stabilization. Things will change.
As things stabilize, strategy becomes less important. Sheer tactical grunt to get through the permutations faster becomes more important. Risk minimizing through pre-existing networks yields more and more results. Things start to be streamlined.
A different kind of people will come to prominence: not the masters of feint and implicit knowledge, but square jawed field commanders with big, efficient machines behind them.

The most interesting age of crypto draws to a close. The most impactful age begins. It's a change over
The really big powers are unwilling to commit until the SEC makes its plans known, and maybe some currency regulators too. We don't touch currency, so we are pretty much moving into tactical. We just need to see the investigations roll out to finalize our responsive position.
Knowing what has to happen before you can act is a strength. Going first is also a strength.

You can't be good at both. The most important strategy of all, the hidden knowledge above price, is self knowledge. You have to know yourself to excel, and to know your world deeply too.
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