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Michael Otsuka @MikeOtsuka
, 11 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
RPI and STUDENT LOANS. I hope @SamGyimah and @stianwestlake reflect on the thinness of the reasons offered by a Departmental spokesperson in defence of RPI as the interest rate on student loans. See linked Guardian article. 1/

theguardian.com/education/2018…
Reason 1: "[RPI] has always been used for calculating interest on student loans."

This sounds as if it has been lifted from a script of 'Yes, Minister'. "That's the way we Brits have done things from time immemorial -- stretching all the way back to, um, .... 1990." 2/
Reason 2: "Student loans are not like commercial loans as they have more favourable terms, including repayments being linked to income and not to the amount borrowed." 3/
This is similar to the reason @UniversitiesUK offered on behalf of an RPI interest rate in their written evidence to Parliament in December 2017. UUK wrote: 4/
"The RPI+3% rate cannot be usefully compared to...commercial lending rates. Student loans are income-contingent, written off after 30 years and therefore unlike any other kind of loan. 5/

Source: data.parliament.uk/writtenevidenc…
How in the world does the fact that the student loan is unlike other loans justify the use of what both @UniversitiesUK and the @ONS regard as a statistically flawed measure of inflation to set the interest rate on this loan? 6/
Suppose that the government consulted astrological charts to set the interest rate on student loans and then declared: "We grant that this is a statistically flawed measure. But this is not a problem, since the student loan is unlike any other loan." This would make no sense. 7/
If neither @UniversitiesUK nor @beisgovuk is willing or able to defend RPI as a statistically sound measure of inflation on which it makes sense to base the rate of interest students are charged, then they must drop the RPI-based rate of interest. 8/
.@UniversitiesUK in particular cannot continue to offer its mealy-mouthed defence of RPI as the interest rate for student loans at the same time they renew their assault on RPI as a basis for increases in the pay of their staff... 9/
...after their convenient year-long episode of amnesia, while they were salivating over the prospect of RPI rises in tuition fees! More details in this linked blog post on the shamelessness of @UniversitiesUK's shifting stance on RPI: 10/10

medium.com/@mikeotsuka/un…
PS: My disbelief of the shameless hypocrisy of @UniversitiesUK's stance on inflation turned me into a blogger. I posted this blog entitled "UK universities employer calls for higher RPI for me and lower CPI for thee!" on my first day on Medium:

medium.com/@mikeotsuka/uk…
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In their new valuation #USS continues to make a "large and demonstrable mistake" in applying Test 1, which they now ineptly try to explain away by contradicting past statements (see embedded thread). 1/
JEP has made a strong case for funding existing DB & DC benefits at a lower contribution level than USS is calling for. 2/
But the regulator (tPR) is calling for an even more conservative valuation than the one #USS issued last week. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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#USS provides blinkered, inaccurate, exaggerated measures of risk in their consultation document, all three of which are tied to the gilt yield. More comments below. 1/
The first (see 5.4.1) is their measure of 'long term risk' in terms of their infamous Test 1 gap to 'self-sufficiency' in 20 year's time. Self-sufficiency is a gilts+0.75 portfolio. 2/
As I explain in this thread, it's only when they rewrite history by contradicting past statements that they are able to show a need to 'de-risk' into bonds in order to meet this test. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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🚨🚨🚨#USS contradicts itself in its latest attempt to answer the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101's findings regarding expected asset level 20 years hence. See the following highlighted passage from p. 12 of the consultation document on the 2018 valuation: 1/
This parenthetical claim is an attempt to deny that they ever assumed that col 1 row 1 would equal col 2 row 1 in @Sam_Marsh101 graph below. 2/
But the record shows that #USS previously identified the target path as the expected path. See this highlighted statement from the transcript of @GuyCoughlan's video of May 2018: 3/
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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1) Let’s blow some myths to pieces. #LáanDreoilín is a Pagan ritual where the wren is celebrated. But along came Christianity. “Quick! We need to abolish all of these Pagan practices and give them our own patriarchal twist,” said Christianity, not feeling at all threatened.
2) Birds hold a special place in Paganism, and in Celtic mythology the wren holds powerful sway. The word "dreoilín" (Irish for "wren") has its roots in the term "draoi éan"/“magical bird”. It was believed the wren acted as a messenger between this world and the next #Dreoilín
3) But Christianity couldn’t bear that. “Let’s conspire to slander this bird so the sheeple will turn against it,” exclaimed Christianity. “We can then spread our own religion.” #Dreoilín
Read 8 tweets
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NBC argues that there’s nothing wrong with the FISA warrant nbcnews.com/news/crime-cou… Let’s see what they say.
“The Russia investigation wasn't launched because of Carter Page.” That has nothing to do with the warrant. I’m not even sure why they included it, other than to confuse their readers. Who cares how the investigation started? What’s the probable cause for the warrant?
“The so-called dossier formed only a smart part of the evidence used to meet the legal burden of establishing "probable cause" that Page was an agent of Russia.” Of course they go on to NOT list any of the rest of the evidence. Because they can’t.
Read 13 tweets
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The Lawfare blog has come out in defense of the FISA warrants. What to Make of the Carter Page FISA Applications lawfareblog.com/what-make-cart… It’s pretty weak tea.
It begins by reviewing the history leading up to the release of the applications, verifications and warrants, including the Nunes and Dem memos. It goes without saying that they defend the Democrat version since they are leftists themselves.
But then he begins his argument by discussing the footnote revealing Steele’s bias.
Read 19 tweets
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I’m starting a thread to document things I find in the FISA warrants that were just released. These will be in the form of observations I make as I work my way through it. First of all, the 412 pages includes all four warrants and the associated documentation.
Secondly, the first thing that stands out to me is that the FBI perjured themselves in the application for the warrant. Why do I say this? Because it includes this.
“(U)(S) Carter W.Page
jknowingly engage in
b3-l
b7A-l
b7E- 1, 2
clandestine intelligence activities (other than intelligence gathering activities) for
or on behalf of such foreign power, which activities involve or are about to
Read 75 tweets
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"loans" at 33% interest rate.???
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Money Changers....????
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thousands of people came up to the Great Temple feasts Days, changing money was a very profitable business and one that resulted in fraud and oppression of the poor.
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What Did Jesus do to the Money Changers..???
Simple and to the point...
I saw Interest rates here in Texas as much as 21%...
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I also remember this too...
Read 5 tweets
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(THREAD) 1. MEET Estela and Nicolas. Today they got married. For anyone else this would be just a picture of a normal wedding day, but for these two, there is much more than meets the eye. For them, this is a story of the triumph of love and hope.
2. 3 weeks ago I was approached by someone at my parish.
-“Father, there is a couple who wants to get married.”
-“I am glad to hear that. Tell them to call me & we will set up a meeting.”
-“Well” she said, “this is the thing. They are in the hospital. Could you come please?”
3. I went to visit them, only to find out that Estela, a beautiful 26 year old woman, had cancer that spread all over her body. Doctors give her a limited time of life. I saw her husband to be, by her side, with a sad smile in his eyes, asking me for hope and a miracle.
Read 13 tweets

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