Bent Flyvbjerg (傅以斌) Profile picture
Professor @UniofOxford. Award-winning author, speaker, adviser Papers for free here: Books: Dialogue yes, polemics no
Oct 16, 2020 4 tweets 6 min read
Item #3 for building back better

We are unlikely to return to the same state of the world as when we entered the #pandemic, nor is this desirable. #Remoteworking has the potential to become more prevalent after the crisis. 2/4
Investments might shift from face-to-face working (and lower the cost of #officerealestate and time for #commuting).
Oct 16, 2020 4 tweets 5 min read
Item #2 for building back better

The covid crisis must be used to accelerate the transition to an electric, zero-carbon economy, to reduce climate tail risk. 2/4
This includes:

(a) investments in renewable energy (and maybe nuclear, if it can be made fast and safe) for powering the industry;

(b) electrification of trains, trucks, public transport, and cars; and
Oct 15, 2020 4 tweets 5 min read
1/4 #Nuclear power plants are bespoke, slow to build, and fat tailed for financial and safety risks. #Wind farms and #energystorage are modular, fast, and thin tailed. 2/4 By choosing wind over nuclear, the risk of regression to the tail will be significantly reduced, and #climate goals will be achieved sooner. This is just one example. Many others exist.
Oct 14, 2020 4 tweets 5 min read
1/4 Rebuilding the economy after covid-19 will be subject to the law of regression to the tail, if less dramatically than the pandemic. Loss of life will hopefully fade as a main risk. But financial fragility, wealth destruction, and debt will continue to be key risks for a while Image 2/4 The massive stimulus spending governments use to restart economies in recession comprise giant construction and investment projects with fat-tailed financial risks, like multi-billion-dollar megaprojects in IT, transport, energy, water, education, housing, health, and defense
Oct 14, 2020 5 tweets 6 min read
#Floods and #wildfires are both subject to regression to the tail. The same holds for #droughts, #hurricanes, #landslides, #icemelt, #sealevelchange, and other phenomena closely related to the climate crisis. Image This tells us that understanding regression to the tail and how to mitigate its specific manifestations for climate will be key to mitigating the climate crisis.