THREAD
1/What the "arsenal of freedom" looks like in Ukraine:

Tanks
✅ AMX-10 RC 🇫🇷
✅M-55s 🇸🇮
✅T-72 🇨🇿🇲🇦🇲🇰🇵🇱
✅PT-91 🇵🇱
⬜Leopard 2 🇩🇪🇨🇦🇩🇰🇫🇮🇬🇷🇳🇴🇵🇱🇵🇹🇪🇸🇸🇪🇹🇷

MLRS
M142 HIMARS 🇺🇸
M270 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇩🇪🇳🇴

IFVs
✅BMP-1 🇨🇿🇬🇷🇸🇰
✅YPR-765 🇳🇱
⬜ M2/M3 Bradley 🇺🇸
⬜Marder 🇩🇪 2/
SPG/SPH/SPM
✅2S1 Gvozdika 🇨🇿🇵🇱
✅AHS Krab 🇵🇱
✅DANA 🇨🇿
✅M109 🇱🇻🇳🇴🇬🇧
✅PzH 2000 🇩🇪🇮🇹🇳🇱
✅RCH-155 🇩🇪
✅6x6 CAESAR 🇫🇷
✅ShKH Zuzana 2 🇸🇰🇩🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰
✅Panzermörser M113 🇱🇹

SPAAG
✅Gepard 🇩🇪
✅9K35 Strela-10M 🇨🇿
✅Land Cruiser w/ ZU-2 🇨🇿

1/ There's a lot of talk about how many Leopard 2 tanks are available to send Ukraine. Based on several sources, here's a breakdown of existing Leopard 2s from global stockpiles.

Around 3,565 Leopard 2s have been built in total. 12 of Ukraine's close allies use them:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1601899773409300481

🇨🇦 has 62 A4s + 20 A6s (+30 ARVs/AEVs)
🇩🇰 has 13 A5DKs + 44 A7s
🇫🇮  has 100 2A6NLs + ~100 2A4s (+ 39 spares or converted to Bibers or Marksmans)
🇩🇪 has 20 A5s + 155 A6s + 20 A7s + 84 A7Vs + ~264 2A4s in storage
🇬🇷 has 183 A4s + 170 A6HELs
🇳🇱 has 18 (leased from Germany)

1/ To be blunt, I don't want to hear about how you didn't find the leaders likeable, or the campaigns inspiring. I don't want to hear about the flaws in platforms, or how the polls look. There are so many people in this province counting on us to defeat the Ford PCs this #onpoli: 2/ Vote for the most vulnerable Ontarians with disabilities who are trapped in poverty, some of whom are seeking medically-assisted suicide (MAID) because of #ODSPoverty. #VoteForTheDisabled #VoteToEndODSPoverty

Vote to improve autism supports.
#VoteForTheAutismCommunity

I get nervous whenever I see Russia make gains in Ukraine. But tides of war can dramatically change. In 1942 Germany seemed unstoppable and likely to break the USSR. But motivated resistance and massive Western support made the difference. It'll make a difference in Ukraine too. 2/ Like Hitler's attack on Europe, Putin's seems doomed to fail in the long term. Sanctions will only continue to increase against Russia, while US lend-lease is only just beginning, and Ukraine is training its massive reserve army. Russian morale and troop resolve is weak.

1/ Normally PCs have the firmest vote commitment. Surprisingly, according to Leger's latest the NDP have the highest percentage of committed voters now. Less than half of Liberals and Greens are committed. Moreover, NDP is the 2nd choice for most voters (69% of Libs!). #onpoli 2/ Only 1.5% of voters are both NDP-leaning and open to voting Liberal. OLP should focus the last week on winning the 4.92% of voters currently PC-leaning but open to voting for them. NDP should focus on winning over 2nd choice voters in their strongest 53 ridings.

Liberals love to dunk on Poilievre, but too many arrogantly dismiss the very real possibility that this man could not only win the CPC leadership race but the next federal election too. That same kind of smug, dismissive arrogance is what delivered Trump & Ford to power. #cdnpoli

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1490115382157398030

2/ Too many people on the ideological left & centre dismiss populists at their own peril. I thoroughly detest Poilievre and the ideology he stands for. But I also recognize his political shrewdness. I fear him a lot more than other likely CPC leader contenders for a few reasons.

During the last election I encountered numerous essential workers in grocery and retail stores aged 16-17 who wanted to vote but couldn't. This is absurd. If we deem people responsible enough to work, drive, pay taxes, join political parties, etc. they should be allowed to vote.

https://twitter.com/DonDavies/status/1489315594831032321

I'm reminded of last fall when a contractor (age ~55) told me he accidentally voted PPC in the federal election because the candidate was a former provincial PC candidate and he confused PPC with PC/CPC. Point being; age does not determine political literacy or sound judgement.

1/ Funny how some people fearmonger about Proportional Representation giving the PPC a few seats. Do they forget its predacessor, the right-populist Reform Party, became *offical opposition* under FPTP, then they hijacked the PCs through a merger to form CPC, then formed gov? FPTP is arguably a much worse system to give rise to the Far Right. Their voters aren't stupid. If they can't earn any representation with their own party they'll hijack the mainstream right-wing one. This is exactly what happened with Reform-to-CPC, and in US to Repubs w/ Trump.

Ridings still in play for NDP
Vancouver Granville: 6,264 vote kits returned; 230 votes short

Davenport: 3,274 kits; 374 short

Windsor-Tecumseh: 2,245 kits; 501 short

Hamilton Mountain: 2,482 kits; 684 short

Parkdale-HP: 6,640 kits; 1,849 short

Spadina-FY: 5,069; 1,320 short 2/
Berthier-Maskinogé: 1,044 vote kits; 904 votes short

Northwest Territories: 1,281 kits, 829 short

Halifax: 3,348 kits, 1,299 short

THREAD
1/ Attacking Trudeau's credibility was good, but in the last week or 2 the NDP *really* needed to promote their policies and vision for pandemic recovery. It also needed to promote its TEAM of highly competent candidates and that its plan was the most fiscally responsible. 2/ Just as we saw with Ed Broadbent, a popular leader alone can't carry the party to victory. Trying to replicate the 2011 miracle is foolish; we've got to attract more talent to the party and promote the hell out of our candidates; show voters they can handle cabinet roles.

1/ Ridings NDP narrowly trails in:
-Halifax (1,249 votes; 2.7%)
-Davenport (147; 0.9%)
-Hamilton Mountain (642; 1.9%)
-Nickel Belt (1,431; 3.9%)
-Parkdale-High Park (473; 2.3%)
-Spadina-Fort York (246; 2.9%)
-Sudbury (700; 2.2%)
-Saskatoon West (239; 1.4%)

#Elxn44 2/
-Kootenay-Columbia (644; 2,2%)
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (156, 0.3%)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (736; 2.7%)

Not saying all will flip but I definitely think some will. 30-32 seats seems likely outcome. Mail in ballots will be decisive for some of these very close races. #Elxn44

1/ Final thoughts on #Debate2021:
-Trudeau came off arrogant and hostile, couldn't defend his record on climate change, housing affordability, boil water advisories/reconciliation, pharmacare, etc. I think he takes a hit from this debate to be honest. #Elxn44 #cdnpoli 2/ O'Toole started out affable and seemingly reasonable compared to red faced and belligerent Trudeau. However, the more his platform comes under scrutiny it's hard to see how he grows his support beyond the bump CPC already has. He comes out no further ahead or behind.

1/ It is truly astounding the number of intelligent, politically astute, truly progressive Candians who, election after election, are persuaded by market research polls, peer pressure, and fancy campaign ads to lend their votes to the Liberals *just* to stop the Conservatives. 2/ Here's the thing. On occasion, a United Front is needed to stop a truly bad leader or party from winning. But voting for Liberals *every single election* just to stop the Cons is like relying on tape to stop a leaking sink. Eventually you need to actually repair the leak.

THREAD 2:
1/ This is a good question. @MPJulian hammered the Liberals for giving the Big Banks $750 billion within days of the pandemic yet by October 2020 they hadn't fulfilled their commitment to provide financial aid to people with disabilities.

https://twitter.com/MPJulian/status/1311085569607307264

https://twitter.com/sdpate/status/1402879949816598531

2/ April 29, 2020: Liberals agreed to raise the CESB student benefit to $2,000/month for students with disabilities (and/or those with kids). This was one of the NDP's demands to pass the bill. It was limited to students but was a policy win.
ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…

1/ THREAD: I see a lot of Liberals scoff when people rightly claim the NDP were responsible for many of the best aspects of the government's COVID relief benefits (a robust $2K/month CERB, 75% wage subsidy, CESB, $2K/extended CRB, and CRSB paid sick days). So here's the receipts. 2/ March 18, 2020 the Liberals' initial pandemic response was to expand EI access with an Emergency Care Benefit ($1800/month/15 weeks), boost the CCB, a one-time GST rebate, student loan payment deferrals, 10% wage subsidy, and tax deferrals until August.
cheknews.ca/trudeau-announ…

As someone who has seen their home value go up exponentially in under 3 years, I can honestly tell @TOAdamVaughan that I'm perfectly fine with a 30-50% price drop to improve housing affordability. Stop helping those who don't need it. #HousingCrisis #cdnpoli

https://twitter.com/RodneyTori/status/1402260984497065991

2) Skyrocketing prices don't actually help home owners that much either because they're contingent on low interest rates. If you need to move you still end up with a mortgage because *everything* costs more. Tapping into equity also requires paying more interest to banks/lenders.

1) The NDP needs to get better *presenting* their platforms as common sense, modest Social Democracy. What do I mean by that? I mean they need to be able to appeal to centrists by not couching things in ideological terms, *without abandoning their core values or bold objectives.* 2) If you ask people if they want Canada to have universal pharmacare & dentalcare, free childcare & postsecondary education, while at the same time see the gov tax big banks, mega-corporations and billionaires more, the vast majority will agree. None of these things are radical.

1/8 For those saying they need to "strategically vote Liberal" to keep Scheer out: here are at least 75 ridings where you should strategic vote NDP, based on results in the past 8 elections, incumbents, returning MPs, etc.
#Cdnpoli #Elxn43 #UniteTheLeftVote #ElectProgressives 2/8 NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR:
-St. John's East
-St. John's South—Mount Pearl

NOVA SCOTIA
-Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
-Halifax
-Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook

NEW BRUNSWICK
-Acadie—Bathurst

This #elxn43 vote FOR the #NDP that will ACTUALLY deliver progressive policies, like:
1) Reducing Wealth inequality:
✅Wealth Tax on richest 0.1% (net worth of $20 million +)
✅End subsidies for fossil fuel/big telecom corps
✅Tax reform to close #TaxGap + stop tax evasion 1) Reducing Wealth inequality (continued)
✅Increase corporate tax rate to 18%
✅Increase inclusion rate on capital gains to 75%
✅Federal foreign buyer's tax on real estate
✅Increase federal minimum wage to $15/hour
✅Mandatory Pension-insurance program
✅Ban unpaid internships