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Dr. Safa Mote Profile picture
Dr. Safa Mote
@SafaMote
Applied Mathematician (Math PhD), Systems Scientist (Physics PhD) @UofMaryland. #COVID math & science. Pianist. Not political. Follows/Likes/RTs ≠ endorsements.
Mark Richter Profile picture ARP Profile picture Jehosephat Trimbleshank Profile picture Aric Profile picture 4 subscribed
Nov 30, 2020 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
COVID causes blood vessel injuries and blood clots, which in turn may lead to brain strokes and ischemic organ failures. This can happen while battling COVID, or weeks/months/years after recovery.

@RileyBehrens describes his own experience in this painful but must-read thread. Here is a brain imaging of a COVID patient in his early 40s. One can observe multiple large white areas, which indicate acute infarctions due to blood clots. These damages often lead to long-term disabilities, eg, slurred speech, asymmetric loss of motion.
Oct 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There is a mountain of evidence that shows children can and do get infected with the coronavirus. They are also very effective spreaders of the virus.

"Children don't spread COVID" is a myth peddled by COVID deniers. Example 1:

Oct 15, 2020 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Yesterday, @nytimes published an article titled "Coronavirus Reinfections Are Real but Very, Very Rare."

I wish this statement were true. But it is not only inaccurate, it may lead to dangerous outcomes.

I will explain why in the thread below.

nytimes.com/2020/10/13/hea…

0/🧵 1. For a case to be officially reported as reinfection, the current standard requires obtaining distinct genomic sequences of the virus for the first and second infections.

But genomic sequencing is expensive and therefore is not usually conducted for viral samples.

1/
Aug 30, 2020 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Thread: The Precautionary Principle

In order to minimize risk when information is insufficient, assume a higher negative impact outcome, especially when the stakes are high.

The resulting decisions could prevent or minimize a potentially major negative impact.

Examples:

0/ PP1. If you go camping and have heard of bears in the forest but have not seen any yourself, carry a gun and don't sleep outside your tent at night.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/mit-c…

1/
Jun 23, 2020 • 16 tweets • 17 min read
Thread: #Mexico, #Brazil, #India, #Pakistan, #Chile, #Colombia are experiencing alarming #coronavirus outbreaks and rapid ACCELERATION in cases & deaths.

On June 21, @DrEricDing tweeted the concerning statement below about Mexico.



1/ On June 22, Dr. Ellie Murray of Boston University posted a response, calling @DrEricDing's tweet "bad and misleading".

A number of other Infectious Disease Epidemiologists (ID Epis) joined Dr. Murray to criticize @DrEricDing, mostly with disrespectful tweets.

2/
Jun 18, 2020 • 17 tweets • 18 min read
Thread: Wearing masks is our best defense against the #coronavirus.

@WhiteHouse press secretary said today that masks are no longer required in West Wing. Many tweets also advise against masks.

Result: Colossal failure of the US #COVID response.

thehill.com/homenews/admin…

1/ An example of anti-mask rhetoric can be seen in the video below by a Mr. Huff. I will explain why everything that he says here is scientifically incorrect and a danger to public health. (I do not know Mr. Huff or his motivations.)



2/
May 26, 2020 • 20 tweets • 18 min read
Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.

I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.

Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?

1/ My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):



2/
May 12, 2020 • 30 tweets • 16 min read
Thread: Dump bad equations. They lead to bad decisions.

On May 10, Mr. @BorisJohnson proposed a simple equation to determine #COVID Alert Level. He then explained how the reopening policy could be shaped based on this "Threat Level".



1/ In this thread, I will explain why this equation is not only wrong, but is also completely unnecessary — especially when we have clear alternative measures that can guide #COVID policies and decisions.

* Fast forward to tweet # 11 if you already know Dimensional Analysis.

2/
May 2, 2020 • 41 tweets • 23 min read
Thread: Exponential to Linear & Reopening

On Apr 17, Mr. Trump predicted a MAXIMUM #COVID death toll of 60–65k in 🇺🇸.

I predicted the toll would exceed 65k by today.

That was correct (up to a 24hr reporting delay). Current tally, May 1, is 65,435.



1/ This was my third correct prediction in a row.

My first prediction was on Apr 4 for Apr 12 (~20k deaths).



My second prediction was on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (~40k deaths).



2/
Apr 19, 2020 • 29 tweets • 14 min read
Thread: "How to predict #coronavirus trends with Kinematics of Epidemics?"

On Apr 4, I made a spot-on prediction for US #COVID deaths by Apr 12 (~20k).



My prediction on Apr 12 for today, Apr 19, was ~35–40k deaths.

It proved accurate AGAIN. Sadly.

1/ US #COVID death count is currently at 38,900 (@bing & @Google COVID Trackers).

In this pedagogical thread, I will explain how to use basic concepts of physics to make such predictions.

Specifically, I will describe the "Kinematics of the COVID Epidemic."

2/
Apr 17, 2020 • 19 tweets • 8 min read
Thread on "Masks, Einstein, Interdisciplinary Science, and defeating #COVID."

In 1905, which @AlbertEinstein called his "miracle year", he published four important papers. One of them was on "Brownian Motion":

einsteinpapers.press.princeton.edu/vol2-trans/137

1/ Brownian motion is the random motion of particles suspended in a fluid (gas or liquid) as a result of collision with that fluid's molecules.

Brownian motion clearly explains why tiny mucous droplets that are carrying #coronavirus can stay suspended in air for several hours.

2/
Apr 12, 2020 • 35 tweets • 20 min read
On Mar 24, we had ~800 #COVID deaths in the US. On Apr 4, when the count was at ~8,000, I predicted ~20,000 deaths by Easter Sunday, Apr 12.

My prediction was spot on. Current tally is 20,600.


1/ In this PEDAGOGICAL thread, I will explain how I came up with this number. This thread is not meant for systems experts.

I became interested in, and very concerned about, the spread of #coronavirus since January 2020, when I saw the initial datasets from #Wuhan.

2/
Mar 19, 2020 • 6 tweets • 11 min read
@alexandrosM @NAChristakis @Stanford @jflier @COVID2019app Below, Dr. Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology @Harvard, reponds to Ioannidis's comments.

Nobody denies the helpfulness and importance of collecting more data.

But doing nothing would be equivalent to...

1/
statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-… @alexandrosM @NAChristakis @Stanford @jflier @COVID2019app @mlipsitch @Harvard ...telling weather forecasters "we don't YET have enough evidence of a hurricane [that is going to land in a week], so let's not evacuate."

Scientific Prediction is indeed one of the important achievements of science.

Now is not a time to deny science and scientific method.
2/
Mar 19, 2020 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
@PoliticoRyan Dear @PoliticoRyan: Thank you for your nice analysis. I completely agree w India & homeless/refugee shelters (#1 & #3). But not so sure about #Russia, #Germany, & #Iceland. Rate of spread depends on PREVENTION/MITIGATION POLICIES in a community/country.
1/ @PoliticoRyan #Russia seems to have established very strict intervention measures, including mandatory quarantines and lockdowns. They are probably not truthful about their testing stats, but that has not much to do with the dynamics of disease spread.
2/
Mar 18, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
@ErickFernandez I am not a political person. But this eye-opening video compilation points to a much deeper problem in our society.

The education system in our country has failed to teach science to students, and our media/tv/movies constantly degrade scientists.
1/ @ErickFernandez So, people listen to pundits and celebrities instead of scientists and experts. These experts have scientifically studied a problem for years, therefore understand it better and can design methods of prevention and mitigation.
2/