Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #econjobmarket
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I've written a paper to show that part of the US’s financial turbulences witnessed since the 1980s are due to the fall in the Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
Without tax cuts, this is what would've happened 👇
Do you want to know why?
🧵 [1/10].
#EconTwitter #Econjobmarket
Without tax cuts, this is what would've happened 👇
Do you want to know why?
🧵 [1/10].
#EconTwitter #Econjobmarket
First, let me introduce the animal. It is my #Jobmarketpaper, written under the supervision of Prof. Albert Marcet at @IDEA_UAB, @CREIResearch, @bse_barcelona.
You can find it here: pau-belda.eu/wp-content/upl…
[2/10]
You can find it here: pau-belda.eu/wp-content/upl…
[2/10]
The Fact. Despite the Great Moderation, stock and housing markets experienced more turbulence.
The Fact is challenging to explain for much of the theory. If prices reflect fundamentals and fundamentals became more stable…Why did prices become wilder? 🧐
[3/10]
The Fact is challenging to explain for much of the theory. If prices reflect fundamentals and fundamentals became more stable…Why did prices become wilder? 🧐
[3/10]
🚨Job Market Paper🚨
Do inflation expectations respond to changes in Monetary Policy (Inflation Targeting (IT))?
The answer? No! But there are nuances.
Key Result 📢: Inflation leads expectations.
Details in the thread. #EconTwitter #Jobmarketpaper #Econjobmarket
Do inflation expectations respond to changes in Monetary Policy (Inflation Targeting (IT))?
The answer? No! But there are nuances.
Key Result 📢: Inflation leads expectations.
Details in the thread. #EconTwitter #Jobmarketpaper #Econjobmarket
Rational Expectations: Agents immediately adjust expectations to the target.
Adaptive Learning: Priors do not adjust after the introduction of IT.
Adaptive Learning: Priors do not adjust after the introduction of IT.
Forecast Errors (Realised Inflation - Predicted Inflation) change after the introduction of IT. Driven mostly by countries with a single mandate.
Implication: Inflation adjusts but not expectations.
Channel? Needs to be explored.
Implication: Inflation adjusts but not expectations.
Channel? Needs to be explored.
What makes inflation costly? Who bears these costs?
In my JMP, I explore an understudied mechanism:
Inflation impairs households’ ability to save for precautionary reasons
How? Let’s take a look at households’ liquid assets portfolios
#EconTwitter #Econjobmarket
In my JMP, I explore an understudied mechanism:
Inflation impairs households’ ability to save for precautionary reasons
How? Let’s take a look at households’ liquid assets portfolios
#EconTwitter #Econjobmarket
60% ‼️of US households hold all their liquid assets in bank deposits or cash
Maybe surprisingly → this share has remained stable even in periods of high interest rates
Let’s label these households “Bank-Dependent”
Maybe surprisingly → this share has remained stable even in periods of high interest rates
Let’s label these households “Bank-Dependent”
Bank-Dependent households are not poor or hand-to-mouth, they are widely spread along the assets distribution
Eg: among households with 6 months of income in liquid assets → 50% of them are Bank-Dependent
Eg: among households with 6 months of income in liquid assets → 50% of them are Bank-Dependent
Expectations of inflation/unemployment/etc feature heavily in policy (esp. this year).
But expectations aren't some universal variable that's the same for everyone – people disagree about macro variables all the time!
Should you care? My JMP shows you should!
#Econjobmarket
But expectations aren't some universal variable that's the same for everyone – people disagree about macro variables all the time!
Should you care? My JMP shows you should!
#Econjobmarket
Specifically, I ask: when, and how, does heterogeneity in expectations affect the way shocks transmit to aggregate outcomes?
I look at that in a very general macro framework, that nests all your favourite GE models – and then I study an application to households and inflation.
I look at that in a very general macro framework, that nests all your favourite GE models – and then I study an application to households and inflation.
But first, let's fix some ideas: to form an expectation, you need 2 things.
1) You start with some *information* on the values of some variables.
2) You pass that through a *model* to map from info to the variable you want to forecast.
1) You start with some *information* on the values of some variables.
2) You pass that through a *model* to map from info to the variable you want to forecast.
A handful of thoughts on flyouts for job market candidates.
One of three 🧵s – threads 2 and 3 have tips specific to in-person flyouts and remote flyouts
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket #AcademicTwitter #AcademicChatter
One of three 🧵s – threads 2 and 3 have tips specific to in-person flyouts and remote flyouts
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket #AcademicTwitter #AcademicChatter
You have two goals in a flyout:
Primarily, you are still angling for an offer and therefore should mostly focus on making a good impression.
Yet you also need to gather enough information so that you know your own preferences.
Primarily, you are still angling for an offer and therefore should mostly focus on making a good impression.
Yet you also need to gather enough information so that you know your own preferences.
Firm/employee match-quality matters.
Put thought into the attributes that will enhance your productivity & happiness, and conversely what traits you contribute to an institution.
Seek to gain info about the former and share the latter.
Put thought into the attributes that will enhance your productivity & happiness, and conversely what traits you contribute to an institution.
Seek to gain info about the former and share the latter.
Here is a list of questions I received most often during (first round) interviews, per request. Hope the list helps this year’s JMCs prep
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
🧵
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
🧵
Questions about the JMP:
clarifications? What’s the significance/contribution? What are the shortcomings? How would you enhance it & (implicitly) what is stopping you from doing so? What is your main policy implication?
clarifications? What’s the significance/contribution? What are the shortcomings? How would you enhance it & (implicitly) what is stopping you from doing so? What is your main policy implication?
Qs about the JMP:
Where does this fit in the literature? How does this weigh against other evidence on the topic? What would <someone else who has written on the topic> critique about your work?
Where does this fit in the literature? How does this weigh against other evidence on the topic? What would <someone else who has written on the topic> critique about your work?
We are happy to highlight Lena Song and her JM paper on #econjobmarket today
Her fields are: Applied Microeconomics, Development, Behavioral & Experimental, Political Economy
Her fields are: Applied Microeconomics, Development, Behavioral & Experimental, Political Economy
1/9 Dear #EconTwitter, today we highlight Lena Song’s work. #econjobmarket
Lena studies media and information technologies, with a focus on their relationship to diversity and inequality.
Website: songlena.com
Lena studies media and information technologies, with a focus on their relationship to diversity and inequality.
Website: songlena.com
2/9 Lena's JMP studies persuasion. Her theoretical model predicts that the persuasiveness of a message is an inverted-U function of its distance to the audience's existing beliefs.
Here’s a data download for first round interviews. Wisdom I received and things I learned along the way when I was on the JM last year. Please feel free to add your 2c! (I’ll post my notes on flyouts soon)
long 🧵 1/x
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
long 🧵 1/x
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
Your goal is to convince them that you are smart, competent, & kind, that you have an interesting pipeline of work, that you would be a great colleague, and that you will come if they offer you a job. (Insight from @lkatz42)
2/x
2/x
Approach interviews with excitement--not dread. Interviews are an opportunity to share work that you’re excited about, an opportunity to chat with a handful of really smart people taking your research seriously. How wonderful!
3/x
3/x
My JMP is now posted: “Labor Market Consequences of Domestic Outsourcing: Evidence from Legalization in Brazil” economics.mit.edu/files/22108
Coauthored with my excellent classmate Mayara Felix. #EconTwitter #EconJobMarket 🧵
Coauthored with my excellent classmate Mayara Felix. #EconTwitter #EconJobMarket 🧵
Our contribution: While prior work uses *firm-level* variation to measure the effect of outsourcing on wages, we use *market-level* variation from Brazil's 1993 outsourcing legalization to assess the aggregate effects of outsourcing on wages, employment, and welfare.
Our focus: Security guards, who experienced the largest rise in outsourcing following legalization
Data: RAIS matched employer-employee data with industry and occupation codes to identify outsourcing
Data: RAIS matched employer-employee data with industry and occupation codes to identify outsourcing
A new memo from our AEA ad hoc committee on the job market has been posted. Happily, there is continued evidence of a major rebound in the demand for PhD economists. Summary w/ graphs follows... 1/7
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket @AEAInformation @JOE_listings @EconSpark @AEACSWEP
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket @AEAInformation @JOE_listings @EconSpark @AEACSWEP
As of 2021-07-30, the # of job openings on JOE for full-time academic jobs in the US is up 58.5% compared to same time in 2020 and is even up 25.6% compared to this time in 2019 (which was pre-COVID). #EconTwitter #EconJobMarket 2/7
The # of job openings on JOE for full-time academic jobs outside the US is up 87.7% relative to 2020 and up 26.9% compared to 2019. #EconTwitter #EconJobMarket 3/7
How helpful are socially connected parents for young workers’ who are entering the labor market? In my #JMP, I use administrative data from Israel to find out.
Website: sites.google.com/view/mulysan
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
A thread
1/9
Website: sites.google.com/view/mulysan
#EconTwitter #EconJobMarket
A thread
1/9
Social connections could help by
(1) Alleviating frictions by improving information flows about job openings
(2) Increasing the probability of a match, conditional on having information
I build a matching model to separately identify these mechanisms
2/
(1) Alleviating frictions by improving information flows about job openings
(2) Increasing the probability of a match, conditional on having information
I build a matching model to separately identify these mechanisms
2/
For identification, I compare: (a) firms where a young person has an existing parental contact during their labor-market entry year, with (b) firms where the young person *used to* have a parental contact but left shortly before their labor-market entry year
3/
3/
It's #econjobmarket season! Here's what I learned about interviews/spiels, hopefully still applicable this year:
Your audience has diverse interests, their questions can go on a tangent, it's your job to pull them back! Respectfully say "That relates to my next point..."
1/N
Your audience has diverse interests, their questions can go on a tangent, it's your job to pull them back! Respectfully say "That relates to my next point..."
1/N
I learned this in a mock interview w/ our lovely John Geanakoplos. His questions threw me in so many directions, jumbled up my thoughts so much that I never got back on track.
So, have MANY mock interviews w/ faculty in many different fields, practice w/ friends, cats & dogs.
2/N
So, have MANY mock interviews w/ faculty in many different fields, practice w/ friends, cats & dogs.
2/N
Signposting - "Now I’ll go into the data/model/identification" - can help anchor your thoughts, and help interviewers keep track of where you are and what to anticipate next.
Make sure you’ve finished saying all the important points in a section before moving to the next.
3/N
Make sure you’ve finished saying all the important points in a section before moving to the next.
3/N
