Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #lindy

Most recents (13)

Finally managed to imitate the Format used in Scholastic, Syriac, and Talmudic Medieval scholarship.
More ornate
Incidentally the "Tufte style" is neither Lindy, nor esthetic, nor convenient to read. Density on the page never detracts people and even increases motivation. See #Antifragile
Read 9 tweets
@luanrodolfo @nntaleb I want to try this one. I want to write an essay about this so this is a good chance to make some mistakes in short hand form. The essay I want to call “Ayn Rands Smoking Habit: Never let an objectivist manage your risks”
@luanrodolfo @nntaleb So basically Ayn Rand believed in the pure primacy of the human mind both as an inductive and deductive instrument. Basically she believed in the infinite power of the happiness response to determine your behavior and that things
@luanrodolfo @nntaleb That feel good and appear right based on observation should be done by humans. The part of her writing that notoriously illustrates the drastic oversight she made was her writing about John Galt’s smoking habit.
Read 8 tweets
Celebrating the Negroni's 100th anniversary.

(in Brescia). But I was told it tastes the same in Milan, and maybe almost the same elsewhere.
A #Lindy drink.
So is its (mild) hangover.
Read 3 tweets
OK, OK, This is my precise definitions for Fragility, Robustness, & Antifragility.
The paper is here. This will be part of the 2nd vol of the Technical Incerto (Includes #Lindy) called: "Fragility Risk and Convexity".
(link: dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0…) dropbox.com/s/y8s7qz2o0fa0
God made mathematics so you can tell me where I am wrong; the fragility of a derivation is transparent for all to see.
Formalism allows the slightest nonsense to show.
Some econs/psychs produce obscure equations to hide nonsense. They get caught: you can debunk using math!
You can only disagree with people who are wrong, not those who are "not even wrong".

When you engage a charlatan (as with @snowded for the above derivations) he represents your debunking his fallacies for a "disagreement".
Read 5 tweets
It turns out that walking for like 4 hours when it's below -30 Celsius cures chronic migraines or something. 🤷‍♂️
But anyway, it's been way too long so let's finally get around to do this.
Joseph de Maisre's "Examination of the Philosophy of Bacon"
Chapter Seven
"The Union of Religion and Science"
Last time, we discovered that Baconian naturalism is crypto-pantheism and therefore any any honest materialist should've admitted defeat once the Big Bang was proved real. (Fred Hoyle knew this)
Read 31 tweets
What I learned in 2018:

Learned from @Safaitic that written language often had nothing to do with spoken languages. The former later makes its way via the minority rule.

It is conceivable that Jesus spoke a Galilean dialect not Aramaic, but used Aramaic for harangues.
2- WHAT I LEARNED IN 2018

Learned from @Mangan150 that seed oil (Not #Lindy) is actually only tested in theory, & maybe be v. inflammatory.

(Went nuts yesterday on Air France when I saw the smallprint for the "olive oil/balsamic" small bottle: 38% olive/37% sunflower.)
3- WHT I LEARNED IN 2018

Learned that psychologist involved in "IQ" fail to understand very basic notions they are using. Such as correlations. Not talking about higher dimensions "g", nonlinear correlations, etc.
Not talking abt quacks like Molyneux, but academic psychs.
Read 6 tweets
Psychologists have the illusion that I am writing this critique of IQ for them.
No. Never argue theology w/a Salafi Sheikh.

Psychologists are the losers in & out of campus.

I am writing to expose the lack of rigor of these "metrics" to "intelligent" scientists & Fat Tonies.
Years ago I waged a war against "Value at Risk", an equally bogus measurement; like IQ, had a bunch of nerds clinging to it because "we have nothing better".
Can someone explain to this fellow @DegenRolf that all these contradictions are telling us is that variance of results from the IQ measure increases with IQ. Not a good thing.
Please explain it slowly to him.
Read 5 tweets
"IQ" THREAD

"IQ" measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs.

1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on "WHY is he asking me that?", which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John)
2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation.

Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones.
3- Look at the hordes with "high IQ" (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion.

Yuuge survivorship bias.

37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998!
Read 34 tweets
New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier).
This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion.

#Lindy @financequant
2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me.

A yuuge result.
As you lower \mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years.
Read 4 tweets
Thread 👇🏽

Recently finished Influence by Robert Cialdini.

Many people say it is one of the most important books they've read. When Charlie Munger first read it, he sent Cialdini an A share of Berkshire b/c he was so grateful. That is worth 300k today.

Here's my synopsis...
Main Thesis:

We all have automatic responses programmed into us that can be taken advantage of. It is through these psychological vulnerabilities that the marketer, or anyone really, can prey.

The books goes over the 7 main vulnerabilities and how you can deal with them.
The 7 tools are as follows:

1. Contrast (not explicitly a tool, but it qualifies)
2. Reciprocation
3. Commitment and Consistency (lumped together b/c similar)
4. Social Proof
5. Liking
6. Authority
7. Scarcity
Read 20 tweets
The tradition of presenting a cental text surrounded by commentary is not limited to (post Rashi) Talmudic. Below

+ Erasmus, ~ 1515 (In Praise of Folly)
+ Talmud, 1482, Guadalajara,
+ Eramus, @BellesLettresEd, 2018 bilingual edition

Figured out how to do it in LaTeX.
#Lindy
I wonder if the Lettrine format at the beginning of chapters works for the new book.
Read 5 tweets
1) We now have to face the fact that what is called "social science" and "evidence based" is scientifically shown to be equivalent to "bullshit vending". Except less elegant, of course.

Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame
2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude.

Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by.... 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted.
3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their "science" when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller.
Read 4 tweets
1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish.

2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state.

#SkinintheGame
For those who don't get that Christianity is about church!= state
medium.com/incerto/we-don…
Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan.

1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect.

2 Imposture "neuroscientist" when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?
Read 6 tweets

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