Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation. Editor @LongWarJournal. Focused on jihadism and political violence in Africa. Alum @FletcherSchool.

Feb 13, 2023, 10 tweets

1. New UN report on AQ and IS is out, here are the most interesting tidbits in my opinion: Like this paragraph saying that several member states noted IS-#Somalia's Al-Karrar office sending $25k a month to IS-Khorasan via crypto documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…

2. Obligatory mention that everyone's least surprising candidate to succeed Zawahiri is indeed Sayf al-Adl and AQ's silence is meant to protect the Taliban

3. Buried in here but yet should be WAY more significant is the assertion that veteran AQ leader Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, captured in Kunar #Afghanistan in 2010 and freed during the Taliban takeover in 2021, is now leading an AQ unit in Kunar. AQ presence in Afghan is very undersold

4. Also buried in here is the notion that because IEDs are becoming more advanced in both #Mozambique and #DRC, member states aren't ruling out the possibility of the Islamic State sending trainers to ASWJ and ADF, respectively.

5. UN also states that Islamic State's Mozambique Province is reduced to ~280 fighters, but yet it still plays an outsized role in the group's overall propaganda output:

6. Also the assertion that IS-#Mozambique is not under a unified command structure:

7. In the Sahel, al-Qaeda's JNIM consolidating power across much of central #Mali and north/east #BurkinaFaso, while also still relying on AQ's guidance in how to achieve these goals. Wrote about this proverbial playbook here: ctc.westpoint.edu/wp-content/upl…

8. The composition of IS-#Libya's foreign fighters is also very interesting, with members purportedly from further afield places such as Ghana and Kenya. Meanwhile, AQ is practicing its aforementioned playbook by guaranteeing its long-term presence in the area via intermarriage

9. Al-Qaeda's branch in #Syria, Hurras al-Din, is reportedly still receiving direct instructions from Sayf al-Adl

10. Elements of the Turkistan Islamic Party worked with IS-Khorasan to target Chinese interests in Kabul, while the group as a whole still cooperated with al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. Unclear if TIP is playing both sides now or just rogue elements of the group worked w/ IS

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