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Caleb Weiss Profile picture
@caleb_weiss7
Feb 13, 2023 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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1. New UN report on AQ and IS is out, here are the most interesting tidbits in my opinion: Like this paragraph saying that several member states noted IS-#Somalia's Al-Karrar office sending $25k a month to IS-Khorasan via crypto documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…
2. Obligatory mention that everyone's least surprising candidate to succeed Zawahiri is indeed Sayf al-Adl and AQ's silence is meant to protect the Taliban
3. Buried in here but yet should be WAY more significant is the assertion that veteran AQ leader Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, captured in Kunar #Afghanistan in 2010 and freed during the Taliban takeover in 2021, is now leading an AQ unit in Kunar. AQ presence in Afghan is very undersold
4. Also buried in here is the notion that because IEDs are becoming more advanced in both #Mozambique and #DRC, member states aren't ruling out the possibility of the Islamic State sending trainers to ASWJ and ADF, respectively.
5. UN also states that Islamic State's Mozambique Province is reduced to ~280 fighters, but yet it still plays an outsized role in the group's overall propaganda output:
6. Also the assertion that IS-#Mozambique is not under a unified command structure:
7. In the Sahel, al-Qaeda's JNIM consolidating power across much of central #Mali and north/east #BurkinaFaso, while also still relying on AQ's guidance in how to achieve these goals. Wrote about this proverbial playbook here: ctc.westpoint.edu/wp-content/upl…
8. The composition of IS-#Libya's foreign fighters is also very interesting, with members purportedly from further afield places such as Ghana and Kenya. Meanwhile, AQ is practicing its aforementioned playbook by guaranteeing its long-term presence in the area via intermarriage
9. Al-Qaeda's branch in #Syria, Hurras al-Din, is reportedly still receiving direct instructions from Sayf al-Adl
10. Elements of the Turkistan Islamic Party worked with IS-Khorasan to target Chinese interests in Kabul, while the group as a whole still cooperated with al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. Unclear if TIP is playing both sides now or just rogue elements of the group worked w/ IS

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More from @caleb_weiss7

Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Jun 6
The Islamic State's Central Africa Province (aka the ADF) is claiming that over the last month it has engaged in an actual da'wah campaign in DRC's Ituri Province, preaching to locals, and converting around 50 people to Islam. If true, this is a marked change for the group. Image
Previous claims or attempts at da'wah or Islamic conversions were indeed mostly forced, as they came as the result of mass abductions and with the threat of death. It has preached in villages before, but nothing sustained like an organized campaign.
So this reported sustained da'wah campaign is significant because it also comes as there are indications that ISCAP is moving into more proto-governance with issuing ID's, organized taxation, etc. See @ryanmofarrell's thread on this:
Read 4 tweets
Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Feb 13
1. The new UN report on the global activities of IS and AQ is out, so here is a big thread on what stood out the most to me. First, we have "growing confidence" that Mumin is indeed Abu Hafs, IS' Caliph. Though some member states continue to disagree. Image
2. Abu Khadija, who was also previously assessed to be a potential candidate for Caliph, is stated to be acting as the emir of the General Directorate of Provinces. Either way, Mumin and Abu Khadija are *the* most important people in the whole of the Islamic State now. Image
3. Member states note that JNIM is strengthening its comms and relationships with other al Qaeda branches, such as Shabaab and AQAP. Not sure how this plays into the rumors about it considering leaving AQ... Image
Read 19 tweets
Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Jan 11
1. Some numbers on Islamic State Central Africa Province #Congo operational claims and propaganda releases in 2024:

292 total claims - the highest yearly total. For comparison, 2023 just recorded 126, while 2022 had 156. Dec. 2024 the highest, with 42 claims; May had 41.
2. Roughly 60% of these were from Congo's North Kivu; ~38% from Ituri; and ~2% from Uganda or Congo's Tshopo Province. Of the North Kivu claims, ~40% of them were from Lubero where ISCAP has been rampaging.
3. 242 photos, 0 videos (has not been a video released from ISCAP since 2022). Not the highest ever yearly media total - 2021 had 279 photos, 4 videos; 2022 had 256 photos, 9 videos - however, it far outpaces 2023 where they just released 92 photos total.
Read 11 tweets
Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Jul 12, 2024
Long thread: Something I've been thinking a lot about is the history of the global jihad in East Africa and particularly how long its been in the collective jihadi conscious. I think most people are probably aware of al-Qaeda's efforts inside Somalia in the early 1990s.
2. For instance, I've long talked on here about these early efforts in Somalia, like the presence of various big leaders and training camps. Or taking part in the infamous Black Hawk Down battle in Mogadishu:
3. What I think people are less familiar with is the global jihad's interactions with conflicts in Ethiopia and Eritrea in the early '90s. I've briefly touched on what AQ itself has said about its activities back then in Ethiopia's Ogaden region:
Read 16 tweets
Caleb Weiss Profile picture
May 15, 2024
1. While I agree with this piece in principle - in that African jihadis do not necessarily pose a threat to the US homeland and current US CT efforts haven’t really worked - it still gets the local branches and affiliates of AQ and IS very wrong. stripes.com/opinion/2024-0…
2. This implies that just because these groups focus on the “local” they aren’t really “global.” And worse, directly states that these affiliations to AQ or IS are nominal and based more around money. Not only does this deny these groups agency over their own identity, it’s wrong Image
3. All of these groups are tapped into international jihadi networks of their respective parent organizations. It’s very real. Not just for money or propaganda purposes, but for real strategic and tactical guidance and support for their local insurgencies.
Read 7 tweets
Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Mar 24, 2024
It’s more sinister than this. Many conflicts, particularly in Africa, don’t really have clear cut “good guy” vs “bad guy” that can be easily translated to quick newsy sound bites. It’s many times “somewhat bad but generally fine guy” vs “bad guy” vs “grey guy.”
So many news agencies don’t even try to bother to cover these issues because it doesn’t create a neat packagable story that will cater to short attention spans.
Then there’s the inherent racism involved that most of the Western populace (or at least Americans) simply does not give a shit about many things outside of their immediate circle, so info of so-called 3rd World conflicts would just never reach their radar regardless of coverage
Read 5 tweets

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