Caleb Weiss Profile picture
Feb 13, 2023 10 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1. New UN report on AQ and IS is out, here are the most interesting tidbits in my opinion: Like this paragraph saying that several member states noted IS-#Somalia's Al-Karrar office sending $25k a month to IS-Khorasan via crypto documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…
2. Obligatory mention that everyone's least surprising candidate to succeed Zawahiri is indeed Sayf al-Adl and AQ's silence is meant to protect the Taliban
3. Buried in here but yet should be WAY more significant is the assertion that veteran AQ leader Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, captured in Kunar #Afghanistan in 2010 and freed during the Taliban takeover in 2021, is now leading an AQ unit in Kunar. AQ presence in Afghan is very undersold
4. Also buried in here is the notion that because IEDs are becoming more advanced in both #Mozambique and #DRC, member states aren't ruling out the possibility of the Islamic State sending trainers to ASWJ and ADF, respectively.
5. UN also states that Islamic State's Mozambique Province is reduced to ~280 fighters, but yet it still plays an outsized role in the group's overall propaganda output:
6. Also the assertion that IS-#Mozambique is not under a unified command structure:
7. In the Sahel, al-Qaeda's JNIM consolidating power across much of central #Mali and north/east #BurkinaFaso, while also still relying on AQ's guidance in how to achieve these goals. Wrote about this proverbial playbook here: ctc.westpoint.edu/wp-content/upl…
8. The composition of IS-#Libya's foreign fighters is also very interesting, with members purportedly from further afield places such as Ghana and Kenya. Meanwhile, AQ is practicing its aforementioned playbook by guaranteeing its long-term presence in the area via intermarriage
9. Al-Qaeda's branch in #Syria, Hurras al-Din, is reportedly still receiving direct instructions from Sayf al-Adl
10. Elements of the Turkistan Islamic Party worked with IS-Khorasan to target Chinese interests in Kabul, while the group as a whole still cooperated with al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. Unclear if TIP is playing both sides now or just rogue elements of the group worked w/ IS

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More from @caleb_weiss7

May 15
1. While I agree with this piece in principle - in that African jihadis do not necessarily pose a threat to the US homeland and current US CT efforts haven’t really worked - it still gets the local branches and affiliates of AQ and IS very wrong. stripes.com/opinion/2024-0…
2. This implies that just because these groups focus on the “local” they aren’t really “global.” And worse, directly states that these affiliations to AQ or IS are nominal and based more around money. Not only does this deny these groups agency over their own identity, it’s wrong Image
3. All of these groups are tapped into international jihadi networks of their respective parent organizations. It’s very real. Not just for money or propaganda purposes, but for real strategic and tactical guidance and support for their local insurgencies.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 24
It’s more sinister than this. Many conflicts, particularly in Africa, don’t really have clear cut “good guy” vs “bad guy” that can be easily translated to quick newsy sound bites. It’s many times “somewhat bad but generally fine guy” vs “bad guy” vs “grey guy.”
So many news agencies don’t even try to bother to cover these issues because it doesn’t create a neat packagable story that will cater to short attention spans.
Then there’s the inherent racism involved that most of the Western populace (or at least Americans) simply does not give a shit about many things outside of their immediate circle, so info of so-called 3rd World conflicts would just never reach their radar regardless of coverage
Read 5 tweets
Feb 5
1. Though ISCAP (aka the ADF) continues to commit heinous acts of violence, here is one definite way we can see that the joint UG/DRC Operation Shujaa is negatively impacting the group: its propaganda output has been dramatically reduced. #DRC #Uganda.
2. Though Shujaa started in 2021, that year recorded ISCAP’s highest propaganda output with 279 photos and 4 videos released by IS’ central media apparatus. Compare that with 2019-2020, where those two years combined accounted for only 42 photos and 3 videos. Stark increase.
3. And 2022 remained strong with 256 photos and 9 videos from the DRC released by IS’ central media. The extreme decrease in activity only began last year when Op Shujaa gained more ground and forced ISCAP to be continuously on the move - just 92 photos were thus produced in 2023
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
1. There has seemingly been a sustained ISCAP (aka ADF) push to attack inside #Uganda since September. Since that month, there have been 5 foiled bomb plots, two successful IEDs in #Kampala, and three attacks in the west that have killed 6 people.
2. And just today, the UPDF reported another clash with an ISCAP unit still inside Uganda, this time in Kibale National Park - which is quite far inside UG territory for a unit originating in the DRC to penetrate. independent.co.ug/updf-kills-two…
3. While this is relatively minor, this is the most sustained ISCAP offensive (if we can call it that) inside Uganda since 2007. This is something @ryanmofarrell and I warned about in an analysis after the group killed 3 people in UG's Q. Elizabeth park. longwarjournal.org/archives/2023/…
Read 8 tweets
Nov 1, 2023
Latest @LongWarJournal: Shabaab’s Mahad Karate repeats a very common refrain from Al-Qaeda that many of its operatives were present during the infamous 1993 Black Hawk Down battle in Mogadishu longwarjournal.org/archives/2023/…
This includes: Abu Muhammad al-Masri (responsible for 1998 embassy bombings and killed in Tehran in 2020), Abdulaziz al-Muqrin and Yusuf al-Ayeri (both helped found the networks that would later create AQAP), and Abu Hassan al-Sa’idi (ideologue and suicide bomber)
Not mentioned by Karate but repeatedly mentioned by AQ elsewhere as also there: Abu Talha al-Sudani, Saleh Nabhan, and Fazul Muhammad (all part of AQ East Africa, helped in the 98 embassy bombings, and all helped found Shabaab).
Read 6 tweets
Jun 18, 2023
1. Somali media is awash with reports that the UAE recently conducted an airstrike against Shabaab in central #Somalia, though this is so far unconfirmed. If true, it would mark the Emirates' first air strike (and perhaps first military op) in the country.
2. UAE has long supported elements of the Somali military with funding, supplies, and training as part of the wider Gulf competition against Qatar (who is also involved in Somalia). UAE boosted security ties with Somalia just earlier this year. hornobserver.com/articles/1997/…
3. For instance, UAE said in March it plans to build a military base in the southern city of Kismayo, which will allegedly be used for "direct participation" in the fight against Shabaab. halqabsi.com/2023/03/uae-de…
Read 5 tweets

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