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Jerry Neumann @ganeumann
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Deceleration is the wrong word for me. It may seem that way because I professionally care about one thing: startups. Not even progress, really, just the radical change brought about by a small group of people creating the future
I'm not fool enough to think the comings and goings of startups makes a huge difference. Look at real GDP for the past ~150 years (log scale) (from visualizingeconomics.com/blog/2010/11/0…)
You could draw a line with a ruler, with a few bumps. The 1950s and 1960s, when startups were fewer, is somewhat indistinguishable from the 1970s-1990s
The difference is whether that growth is in new companies or established companies. I think there are cycles, and there have to be. When the old rule, income becomes more equal because everyone is more equal-seeming when nothing much is happening
When the new sweep in, the old get crushed and there are a few who seem like unparalleled heroes, who deserve to be richer and more famous than everyone else
But this wave of newness allows the existing structures to be restructured...when the old rule they would just rather not change anything fundamental: what good could come of that (for them)?
So, yes. I think society is going to take a decade or two to digest all the new things that have been created over the past 30 years. I don't think this holds back the economy, it just makes my life harder. That's ok. I've had it easy for a long time.
Will there be another wave? Of course! Can we predict it? No. The PC revolution was not predicted (except by those who did, but they're more listened to in retrospect than at the time) nor was the assembly line or the internet as it is
The things we can predict--science and technology--are predictable because we know that we can do *anything*, so if Jules Verne says we're going to the moon, we will eventually go to the moon. But, crucially, we can't predict *when*
And the things that change the economy are *not* the technologies or the science. They are precursors. But it wasn't the invention of the integrated circuit (in the 1950s) that caused the PC revolution. It wasn't the *tech* that caused it
It was the visionaries, founders, risk-takers, and story-tellers who created a new world in peoples' heads so those people could create a new world in reality.
Those people, the story-tellers most of all, are the ones I love, because they are the ones who create the future
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