What to make of this New York Times story from yesterday evening ... nyti.ms/2lXN0ML /1/
First, they key news here is that there will not be a voluntary interview. Giuliani doesn't quite say that, but if he were negotiating for interview terms, there probably would have been progress by now and he probably wouldn't be signaling no dice. He's spoiling for a fight. /3/
Particularly in light of this news nugget about a Kelly interview, the best way to understand this is as simple stonewalling. /4/ 
Second, this raises the question of whether Bob Mueller actually cares very much about getting a voluntary interview with President Trump. If he does, we'll see a subpoena relatively soon. If not, he'll proceed without the interview. /5/
Third, if Mueller proceeds with a subpoena, he will *probably* prevail, as @steve_vladeck and I argued in this piece. The law favors him, but Trump's legal team has arguments available to them, so it is not a slam dunk: lawfareblog.com/can-presidency… /6/
Fourth, because of the probability—but not certainty—that Mueller will prevail if he issued a subpoena, the game theory of this next step is kind of elaborate, as I argued in this piece: lawfareblog.com/game-theory-tr… /7/
Fifth, the key question—to which we don't know the answer—is how much Mueller needs the Trump interview. If he doesn't need it, he will likely not spend months on this dance but will simply let Trump win the particularly skirmish. /8/
Sixth, if he's writing a report, he can still report other evidence and simply note the questions on which investigators lack information in response to the questions they want to ask Trump. Mueller is no worse off here than he would be if Trump took the Fifth. /9/
Seventh, if Mueller really needs the interview, I remain of the belief that he's going to get it. The worst possible outcome for the President is to litigate this question and lose. /10/
If he does this, he effectively drags the matter out through the remainder of the midterm campaign and then loses all of his negotiating leverage. Time is not on the President's side. So despite the noises they are making now, the President's lawyers will deal once they ... /11/
... are certain Mueller is prepared to spend the time and energy litigating the matter. /12/
That's all I got. /13/
