The problem with all these articles is that they rarely tell you the baseline from which they are measuring to get to their conclusion or their headline. Are you starting from 2015? Well, the answer to that is no!
2019? 2021? ➡️
2019? 2021? ➡️
My particular starting point is where UK growth started to diverge both from its own trend and that of its peers, which is to use 2015 as the last baseline for 'normal' trend growth given what we know about Osborne's last forecast and everything that has happened since. ➡️
If you use 2015 as your base and current OBR projections compared to projections in November 2015, we're going to be 7% behind where we should have been somewhere around 2024-2025. ➡️
In terms of actual money, that means that the UK economy will be £165 bn smaller in 2015 than it would have been had we stayed in the EU. Cumulatively, we will have lost £890 bn in economic activity between 2016 and 2025. ➡️
Roughly 45% of the economy lands up as people's gross income. Which means that ordinary working people will have lost - on average - £18,500 per household by 2025. In short, Brexit is costing every household £35 every week at the moment and we don't even know it. ⏹️
