1/ If the Cohen-Trump tape and the story that Cohen says Trump knew about Trump tower meeting in advance are coming from Cohen, one question is, why? Why is he releasing this information publicly? cnn.com/2018/07/26/pol….
2/ One possibility is that Cohen is publicly trying to get a better deal from federal prosecutors in Manhattan and Mueller’s team. T plea/cooperation deal would require Cohen to plead guilty to crimes he committed, cooperate fully, and then get a benefit at sentencing.
3/ First step to getting to that deal would be for Cohen to sit down for a proffer, during which he would tell the prosecutors everything he knows so that they can assess if worth making a deal. The problem is that once a potential gives a proffer ....
4/ it becomes very difficult not to plead guilty because the terms of the proffer typically protect the potential defendant from direct use of the proffer statements but allow prosecutors to use statements if defendant testifies differently at trial.
5/ The upshot is that potential defendants who proffer usually are boxed in to pleading guilty. In other words, you usually don’t proffer unless you are prepared to plead guilty. In this case, Cohen may be hoping to get a better deal than the standard plea/cooperation deal.
6/ He might be trying to persuade the prosecutors to make commitments on charges or sentencing before he proffers and boxes himself him. One way to do that would be to dangle some tantalizing pieces of information to show prosecutors some of what he has.
7/ Why do that publicly? Right now he is dealing with the federal prosecutors in Manhattan, but by offering a public preview, he knows he is also reaching Mueller’s team. Also, he might think that offering the information publicly shows his commitment and break from Trump and ...
8/ he might think it will increase pressure on the prosecutors to cut a deal with Cohen because they will want to bring Cohen back under control. What might Cohen want ....?
9/ Cohen might be hoping to get few charges brought, a commitment of little or no jail time, or even complete immunity. None of these would be typical, and so Cohen hoping to entice prosecutors with his information.
10/ In sum, if Cohen’s side is doing the leaking, then it could very well be a gambit to persuade federal prosecutors and Mueller’s team to give him a better deal. It’s a risky gambit because prosecutors do not like to make commitments up front and they don’t like witnesses ...
11/ who use the public forum in this way. Moreover, the prosecutors will now see that since Cohen has broken from Trump, he has nowhere else to go and so his cooperation is likely inevitable. End.
