Now that we've all had a good night's sleep, I'd like to push back against the notion that Cohen/Manafort day marks The Beginning of the End. I hope it does, but let's keep the champagne corked for now, 1/
Let's start with Cohen: yes, he implicated Trump in a crime. But the prosecutors didn't. The statement that Cohen made illegal payments in coordination with and at the direction of Trump came from Cohen himself in court, not from prosecutors. 2/
To be sure, it's highly likely that Cohen is right. But we basically knew that already from Giuliani's idiotic media tour in May, when he confessed that Trump knew of the payments. thedailybeast.com/giuliani-trump…
But Cohen know where all of Trump's bodies are buried, right? Maybe. But Mueller seems to have no interest in talking to him. 4/
And SDNY, which is prosecuting Cohen, might not be interested in his cooperation either. Who says SDNY is interested in Trump at all? If they can't indict a sitting president (more on that later), they might figure why bother? We don't know. 5/
Let's also keep in mind that Cohen is a longstanding liar -- it was virtually part of his job description when he worked for Trump. But there's reason to believe he's still at it. 6/
Lost in yesterday's deluge was a statement from Senators Burr and Warner strongly suggesting that Cohen lied when he claimed -- contrary to his Senate testimony -- that he knew that Trump knew ahead of time about Don Jr's meeting with the Russians. 7/
To be clear: it seems *extremely* likely that Trump did know about the meeting ahead of time. Cohen may be trying to frame a guilty man, which isn't a good look. Keep that in mind when Lanny Davis hints darkly about Cohen spilling the beans. 8/
Now, to Manafort. Did his conviction change anything that anyone thinks about Trump? Would a conviction in his upcoming DC trial move the needle? I highly doubt it. 9/
But what if he turns on Trump now? It's possible, but it seems unlikely that he'll do so now -- for one thing, he might not get much sentencing help and he'd torpedo his chance at a pardon. 10/
I've assumed Manafort is betting on a Christmas present in 2020, once Trump no longer has to face the voters. While no one ever went broke underestimating Trump's loyalty, he's certainly trying to convince Manafort that a commutation is en route. 11/
To be sure, a commutation or pardon wouldn't help Manafort with state crimes, but he may well be facing less state-level exposure than some have assumed -- but no time right now for that tangent. 12/
And Trump may have caught a break by the Cohen and Manafort news happening on the same day -- he takes one big hit rather than two devastating news days. 13/
Now, some caveats. There may be bigger fish than Cohen implicated here, and pulling on those strings could do real damage to Trump. 14/
And I'd like to learn more about the "tech services" that Cohen allegedly paid for during the campaign. 15/ justice.gov/usao-sdny/pres… 
Many smart folks could write equally long threads about how Cohenfort Day will prove far more damaging that I suggest -- and they might be right. (I hope so!) 16/
But let's remember that this is ultimately about Congress and not the courts. Anyone who thinks Trump will face a criminal trial while president is kidding themselves. 17/
Yes, some say a president can be indicted, and the courts have yet to weigh in. But in the first instance the view that matters is DOJ's. And it's *very* unlikely that Rosenstein, or his successor, would overrule prior DOJ legal opinions and approve a POTUS indictment. 18/
(Side note: @walterdellinger makes a good case that POTUS can be indicted while in office with trial postponed until afterwards. Rosenstein *could* ask DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel to reexamine that piece, but still seems very unlikely.) 19/ nytimes.com/2018/03/26/opi…
So if Trump isn't led out in cuffs, the only way to remove him before his term is up is via impeachment (by a House majority) and removal (by 2/3 of the Senate). Let's just say *many* more shoes will need to drop to get enough GOP Senate votes to end Trump's presidency. 20/
Would House Dems, if they win control in November, impeach Trump even if the vote is doomed in the Senate? Jerry Nadler, who would run the Judiciary Committee, warned against impeachment unless it would convince a "good fraction" of Trump's voters. 21/ nytimes.com/2018/05/17/us/…
Of course, impeachment isn't the only way to bring Trump and his cronies to account. We need robust oversight on all of this -- subpoenas, hearings, etc. In essence, the opposite of what the GOP Congress has done -- and would do if they win again in November. 22/
Without Democrats in control of at least part of Congress, we may never learn all that Mueller knows, or all that Cohen knows (if anything), or unravel any of the other tangled threads in this mess. 23/
If you think yesterday changed any of that, you're kidding yourself. Don't cheer -- vote. 24/end
