What a kicking "Chequers" is getting
Worth stepping back and asking why, how it survived and lives (even if it seems to be in a persistent vegetative state)
Worth stepping back and asking why, how it survived and lives (even if it seems to be in a persistent vegetative state)
It has been a close thing. Barnier/Commission (Selmayr) tried to politically kill it off before the cabinet even agreed it and then in the immediate days after it it came out
He miscalculated by overstating and caricaturing UK position in the initial stage but…
But… by last week in July into August the UK was very concerned that Chequers would be killed off
But… by last week in July into August the UK was very concerned that Chequers would be killed off
Little appetite on EU side for a change of government - which is what ditching the white paper could well mean
Funnily enough, Davis and Johnson resignations helped keep Chequers on life support - illustrating that UK had made some painful concession
Funnily enough, Davis and Johnson resignations helped keep Chequers on life support - illustrating that UK had made some painful concession
What were the concessions?
Significant moves on "governance" and dispute settlement with role for ECJ - which now mean the question for withdrawal agreements is nearly closed (once seen s big sticking point)
Retreat on financial services (from mutual recognition in Mansion House speech) to equivalence (even if a tweaked version and new treaty) with full legal autonomy for EU. Barnier misrepresented, mistakenly or not, this to member states which was noted
Regulatory alignment on goods, particularly state aid, and a pretty tough level playing mechanism that EU seems to have accepted
Non-regression clauses on environment and social legislation - EU now wants a “dynamic alignment” but at the time that was a Barnier ask
Plan to work “as if a shared customs territory”, enigmatic language. This is seen as dynamic part of the negotiation - even if final decisions are not taken until next decade (see later post)
Also as @pmdfoster notes
Also as @pmdfoster notes
One live debate - we first reported on back in April thetimes.co.uk/article/irish-… (showing how long ago the plan was first mooted)
The issue is the services related competent of goods, the maintenance, financing and other contracts bundled into sales of lifts, engines, buses, phones etc, which are worth up to 40% of some products
For EU and Barnier this is a services backdoor into the single market
UK argues - seems pretty clear in Chequers - that the services bundled into goods would be covered by the law of the host state (or EU) where the contract is carried out
So the maintenance engineers for an engine sold to France would be a company in France under local law etc
So the maintenance engineers for an engine sold to France would be a company in France under local law etc
British officials - with an as yet confidential Treasury study to back it up - claim this covers the loophole especially based up by the level playing field mechanism and say they are baffled as to why EU so opposed
Could it be a state aid worry? The commitment to follow EU state aid rules as part the common rule book is seen, by UK side, as binding future governments aka a Labour administration because it will be in a treaty - strangely ignored by the Corbynistas
So Chequers survives because it is a signpost, direction of travel and a bridge to get through the summer to a potential compromise on Ireland/withdrawal agreement via a parallel framing of declaration on future relationship
Where next?
Irish backstop - there is a possible compromise
Irish backstop - there is a possible compromise
If a UK wide backtop/bridge is written into future relationship decoration it might well come alongside a expected transition extension clause in the withdrawal agreement
This means UK in customs union until 2023/2024 possibly for much longer if new arrangements need a change to EU customs code - up to 2029
It all rests on the future declaration - expected to be fairly short - that will thrashed out by EU leaders in Oct/Nov
Putting Barnier aside, the EU’s biggest problem is that Chequers is not politically stable. This is May’s problem too. EU side (governments) do not see a tactical benefit in killing - taking plug out of life support
