Profile picture
Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 14 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Monday morning: what Brexit developments?

1/
Basically, none in the UK.

There's plenty of bluster though

2/
Exhibit 1: Johnson's dead cat piece on Sunday, with a metaphor that doesn't even work on its own terms

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

3/
Exhibit 2: Baker's warning about Tory Chequers rebels

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-454685…

4/
In both cases, this is more about noises off and pre-positioning for the future than active manoeuvres

5/
Note that the alternative, ERG plan has sunk back beneath the waves, like the Loch Ness monster

6/
Indeed, given the weak response to the leaks, it appears that the original intent to 'at least have something on the table' hasn't been worth the grief

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

7/
Thus it is very much like the Loch Ness monster: even if it does exist, it'd be an object of curiosity rather than our new lord and master

8/
This all just reaffirms the impression that it suits all CON factions to keep May in No.10, wear the concessions to get to Exit day, then dump her in April

9/
That's key pt of Baker's contribution: enough oppo to block Chequers, but not enough to either topple May or push through alternative plan

10/
As a result, and given this is where UK has been for many months, bigger news is word on EU mandate

ft.com/content/477ac3…

11/
EU27 might make symbolic gestures at Salzburg to help move things on and help May out of her domestic troubles (and to get a WA deal)

12/
Key pt here is 'symbolic': EU isn't suddenly going to cave in on Irish dimension or anything else, but will try to show a way fwd, logically through the Political Declaration

13/
tl;dr UK is hamstrung; EU ends up picking up the pieces

#evergreen

/end
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Simon Usherwood
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#evergreen

More from @Usherwood see all

Profile picture
Ugh. let's go through these quickly, shall we?

theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
Point 1 is basically already in the WA

1/
Point 2 is impossible, since having the WA in effect means the backstop is automatically implemented in the absence of a future deal

2/
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
A quick thread on one key reason why the UK gvt is getting tangled up over Brexit:

1/
You'll have noticed a pattern in gvt actions over the months: a decision is made, then shortcomings/gaps are found, so new decisions are made, which also don't quite work, and none of them provide blanket resolutions

2/
This has been so both in the Art.50 negotiations themselves and in the no-deal contingency planning

3/
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
A quick run-through of how the EU has dealt with non-approval of treaties, just, you know, in case:

1/
I'll start by noting this very useful book by @dermot_hodson and Imelda Maher, who are very much worth reading on this

2/
In short, the EU doesn't like re-opening texts, so failures to approve result in efforts to give the non-approver enough political space to accept the same legal text

3/
Read 19 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
1. Today in #Brexit tedium: You all saw the Barnier tweet reiterating that a Canada+++ is available and has been from the beginning. The ultra brexiters have taken that to mean an FTA plus whatever fiction they want tacked on to it.
2. They are dishonestly claiming this as a vindication of their position, conveniently ignoring that the EU will not agree to begin talks on any such agreement unless the UK signs up to an NI backstop. The EU is entirely consistent on this.
3. The ultas claim that a Canada+++ deal where they get to define what the plusses mean means that we don't need a backstop, Two problems here. The EU won;t agree to it and secondly, the details of their proposal has the same basic flaw as Chequers which the EU already declined.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
1. All the solutions to the various technical #Brexit concerns are to an extent sub-optimal, complicated and require a degree of compromise. Tories, though, would rather queue up round the block to be told life is simpler than it is.

#CPC18
2. Anyone can blether about sovereignty and self-determination but in the real world, regulation and rules are the WD40 of trade and without agreed norms trade simply doesn't happen. All trade agreements to one extend or other place constraints on sovereignty.
3. Brexit requires of us that we seek a balance between isolationism and subordination but since the EU is the regional and global regulatory superpower in this equation, to a larger extent it will call the shots. This is a simple fact of life. They are bigger than us.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
New @NAOorguk report on @DefraGovUK preparations for #brexit is complimentary on progress made nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
@NAOorguk @DefraGovUK but even though they are doing well it illustrates the scale of the task the dept faces - even with its extra 1300 people
@NAOorguk @DefraGovUK real risks around readiness for "no deal" on fisheries, on chemicals, on food exports ..... but most interesting part is the criticism of ability to engage with businesses
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
1. I am told I should welcome the efforts of @betterbrexit. I'm not impressed. It's too little, far too late and ill thought out. EEA might well be a large part of the solution but it is not a miracle solution and moving into it from the position of being an EU member is not easy
2. To maintain frictionless trade we would need a customs protocol to go with it along with a series of negotiated annexes which may take a number of years to complete. It's not as simple as just filling in an Efta application form.
3. EEA has often been described as an off the shelf solution (even by me) but it is only off the shelf insofar as it is an existing framework. It still needs to be beaten into shape and will have to take into account the concerns and red lines of Efta members.
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
1. The UK can get most of what it wants by agreeing to the EEA. It creates a stable framework which can be introduced in stages as each country specific protocol takes effect, creating space for continual negotiations - allowing us an independent trade policy almost immediately.
2. The first priority is to deal with the administrative act of leaving the EU. Subsequent issues can be refine and negotiated precisely because the EEA is an adaptive framework. The issues can be ironed out over time. It;s better than a perma-transition vassal state.
3. The EEA would provide a great deal of legal certainty for business, ensuring that the regulatory environment for trade remains intact - allowing them to remain in the UK and resume their investment plans.
Read 22 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Continental #style #Tory #amendment #Energy #BREXIT #Brexit #TEFBronze #imported #Trump #TrumpTower #NTBs #French #customs #ProjectFear #Tchenguiz #AlexanderNix #Libya #USA #The5Million #imports #MFN #MikhailFridman #Mueller #BritishVirginIslands

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!