Top story on @SkyNews this morning: Tories openly discussing ousting May at an ERG meeting last night: Brexiteers clearly split between those who want a true Brexiteer in power (some Johnson supporters and those who want to chuck Chequers not here (the @DavidDavisMP camp)
But have they got the numbers? Could get the 48 letters into the 1922 chair to trigger a confidence vote, but No 10 sources say May will stay and fight......
Once confidence vote triggered, half the parliamentary party (near 160 MPs) would have to vote against her to force a leadership bid. No 10 sources clear she won’t stand down unless she loses a confidence vote. So there simply aren’t the numbers to force her out, yet.....
Also, if MPs do trigger a confidence vote and May wins, they can’t trigger for another one for a year, at which point May will be into negotiating a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. So you can see why many Brexiteers are focused - for now - on chucking Chequers not her
This is why the point of maximum danger for May in Nov/Dec if/when she brings her Chequers deal to HoC for vote. If it falls and she’s defeated we’re into political chaos
Also on #ERG. Told senior members - likes of Patel & Rees-Mogg - not at meeting (though chaired by @SteveBakerHW). And it was backbenchers fed up with May talking of trying to oust her. This not the position of ERG nor do these MPs speak for ERG
