Thread by @SamCoatesTimes

Times exc

What next on brexit?

In today’s Times I do a roundup of what people across Westminster - and beyond - are saying at the start of the new term.

A thread below on my conclusions, including details of “Operation Figleaf”

thetimes.co.uk/article/62a2f4…

1. The meaningful vote is set to be either on Tue Jan 15 or Wed Jan 16.

A decision hasn’t been made yet

It partly depends on whether the Commons sits next Friday and Tories have a three line whip to attend the brexit debate - which is unusual

2. Theresa May wants to focus briefing on domestic issues - the NHS? - this weekend

I’m told one advanced plan is for May to appear on the @AndrewMarr9 on BBC 1 on Sunday to launch the 10 year NHS plan, spelling out how the ££ announced over the summer will be spent.

3. More help from EU on the way - possibly as soon next week

Cabinet ministers agree with Leo Varadkar - who suggested yesterday after his 40 min Merkel call that the U.K. could expect additional help from the EU to get the Meaningful Vote through. Help “on eve if vote”

BUT

4. The EU won’t give much

Eg it cd be a verbal promise a permanent backstop “is not a desired outcome”

A Whitehall source told me yesterday that this assistance - non binding promises the backstop will be temporary - is being referred to in Whitehall as “Operation Figleaf”

(!)

4 1/2. DISCLAIMER FOR THE OVERLY LITERAL

Obviously - obviously - No10 doesn’t recognise the term “Operation Figleaf”

- I understand its a jokey term used by senior officials that cabinet ministers shared. There aren’t documents entitled “Operation Figleaf

DISCLAIMER ENDS

5. Even this modest EU help is far from certain.

A Number 10 source said although they were working towards this it couldn’t be guaranteed

Interestingly @BrunoBrussels reports Brussels may be willing to give more substantial assistance once a vote has been held and lost

6. May will have two (or three?) tries to get the Meaningful Vote through - but not more

Cabinet ministers believe - and No10 does not deny - she’ll go again

One ally adds:
“But she won’t resign or set a date for her departure”

Let’s see (as @alexwickham reported yesterday)

7. Cabinet ministers simply do not know what happens if she loses both votes -

and are split over whether she goes for no deal or whether she tries something else

😱

8. ERG sources say it’s very hard to see the number of Tory brexiteers voting against her deal dropping below 35 under any circumstances

That’s the number if you add 1. Tory MPs who publicly declared they had no confidence in her (about 25) to 2. Numbers who resigned from gvt

9. Labour opposition to the deal has been solidifying

The @ProfTimBale polling of Labour members this week suggested Jeremy Corbyn is under huge grassroots pressure to reject TM’s deal

If the EU give “help (see above), they cd demand publication of fresh legal advice

10. Senior Tories are very worried about the @ProfTimBale Tory membership polling

Tory members are in a different place the country as whole on “no deal” -

63% of TORY MEMBERS say they would be delighted/pleased/relieved by no deal

18% of ALL VOTERS say the same

What next? Who knows

Story in today’s Times

Europe hints at backstop vow to get agreement over the line

thetimes.co.uk/article/62a2f4…