With Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation likely tomorrow, here a few thoughts on what this might mean for the next 5-10 years of Supreme Court action. (Thread.)
Most obviously, this will unleash a lot of test cases. Kavanaugh's confirmation will mean that, for the first time in most of our lifetimes, there is a clear majority of conservative Justices. No mushy middles of Powell, O'Connor, Kennedy, but rather five solid conservatives.
Expect a lot of people with conservative causes to push their cases to SCOTUS to see what the new Court will do. These ideological windows may stay open only for a few years; think 1962-68, when there was a strong liberal majority and a whole lot happened..
The common wisdom that Roberts will be a check on this is correct, I think. But note that the conservative 4 of CT, SAA, NMG, and BMK are enough to get cert granted -- and Roberts in most areas has been a reliable conservative.
For lawyers, briefing in Supreme Court cases presumably will aim a lot for the Chief's vote in a lot of big cases, replacing attention to Kennedy's vote. I doubt you'll see a notable change in how much originalist briefing there will be, though.
And it's a good bet that the constitutional theorists in the legal academy will rediscover the values of judicial restraint, stare decisis, and the importance of institutional stability. (Which will be correct, in my view, but for them of course personnel-dependent.)
A justice to watch: Elena Kagan. She's brilliant, and she has some centrist impulses. She'll presumably be looking to create a centrist block with Roberts to push for narrower rulings.
Finally, a big question is how long the 5-Justice conservative majority will last. We don't know, but time matters a lot of course. On one hand, the conservatives have a big age advantage w/ life tenure: The two oldest Justices are on the left, Breyer and Ginsburg (80 and 85).
On the other hand, you never know. If the Senate shifts to D following next month's midterm, that probably means no more vacancies that may arise would be filled until 2021. And who knows what will happen in 2020. As always, stay tuned. /end
