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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Paul Romer: “Relying on a micro-foundation ... "Assume A, assume B, ... blah blah blah .... And so we have proven that P is true. Then the model is identified." paulromer.net/wp-content/upl…
“The nice thing about ideas is that if I use your idea, you are not one idea short. This is different from capital, labor, and other classical factors of production. If we all produce more ideas, we all benefit from these new ideas, not just the people who produce them.”
“Climate change and its effect on everyone’s well-being, William Nordhaus pointed out, is not a part of national accounts, while profits and GDP are.” GDP ≠ welfare. theconversation.com/paul-romer-and…
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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I'm now in my second parallel session of the morning: "Services in Different Parts of the World".

First talk is by @PenelopeStrauss from Telethon Kids Institute in Perth, Australia, who is talking about the @Trans_Pathways study. #wpath2018
Strauss: Trans Pathways was a national survey of trans and gender diverse young people and parents/guardians. With 859 young people and 194 parents/guardians participating, it was the largest survey of its kind in Australia. #wpath2018
Strauss: Almost half of the young participants in the Australian Trans Pathways survey identified in non-bvinary terms. #wpath2018
Read 30 tweets
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The fact that Twitter is reportedly removing "likes" in order to "promote healthy conversation" (with, as far as I can tell, no justification beyond "jack thinks it will work") is a darn compelling argument for that company to hire actual, trained social computing researchers.
users: hey twitter maybe less death threats
twitter: more characters in tweets, you say? here you go!
users: hey twitter could you ban nazis
twitter: we hear you want hearts instead of stars!
users: hey twitter disinformation campaigns are--
twitter: OK FINE WE GOT RID OF HEARTS
And to be clear, (a) I heart twitter as you can tell from how active I am; (b) I am really glad they're helping fuel research on healthy conversations (see link); and (c) they ARE trying to hire a social science director. So I think they can do better. :) blog.twitter.com/official/en_us…
Read 9 tweets
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New report by @amnadler @mediated1 @BostonJoan for @datasociety on Weaponizing the Digital Influence Machine (adtech weaponized for “vulnerability over relevance”) datasociety.net/output/weaponi…
A few excerpts of this excellent, timely report follow as I work my through it and you should too datasociety.net/wp-content/upl…
Psy Group, WikiStrat, Cambridge Analytica/SCL, AggregateIQ, VizSense and many others come to mind
Read 15 tweets
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This thread demonstrates that a lot of academic writing that *looks* like utter nonsense is merely scholars dressing up a useful but mundane point with a ton of unnecessary jargon.
My theory is that the jargon creates an artificial barrier to entry. noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/academ…

If one must spend years marinating one's brain in jargon to be perceived as an expert on a topic, it protects the status and earning power of people who study relatively easy topics.
In econ, a similar thing is accomplished by what recent Nobel prize winner Paul Romer calls "mathiness": paulromer.net/wp-content/upl…

But mathiness and jargon are not quite the same...
Read 6 tweets
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30/1
 For all those who have doubts about @ThomasWictor
and his ravings about a "Muh GCC"

I, too, have doubts, too.
but one question that nobody seems to liike
and still stumps me today

why did ISIS start losing EVERY SINGLE F*CKING BATTLE since Oct 2015 ?
30/2
 Find me a significant Military battle that ISIS won since OCT 2015

whenever I debate Liberals about Middle East, Syria, + Iran
and I raise GCC/Wictor

"Oh, that crazy old man....show me your proof !"

I always ask, "Fine, can you show me where ISIS advanced since Oct 2015"
30/3
 In the Summer of 2015, ISIS was on the F*ckng march
You can google it

Nobody could stop them
Not Iraq
Not USA
Not God

They were growing at an incredible pace
even with Russians around supervising

Then Oct 2015, it stopped cold
Why?

IDK-but I do have a theory....
Read 49 tweets
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_The Voice of the Dolphins and Other Stories_, Szilard 1961 mega.nz/#!xHx0TCAQ!6A-… dropbox.com/s/3rlvvukfk3x3… libgen.io/foreignfiction…
_The Playboy Interview II_, Golson 1983: libgen.io/book/index.php… mega.nz/#!0CZSzBqA!qZ6… dropbox.com/s/ggwf94ktopkb…
with: Ayn Rand/Salvador Dali/Henry Miller/Ian Fleming/Jean-Paul Sartre/Robert Shelton/Toynbee/Johnny Carson/W. F Buckley/Roman Polanski/Groucho Marx/Jane Fonda/Robert Redford/Roone Arledge/Alex Haley/Ted Patrick/Shockley/G. Gordon Liddy/Garwood/Fallaci/Henry Fonda/Lech Walesa
Read 97 tweets

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