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John Daniel Davidson @johnddavidson
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Quick thread on the new Quinnipiac poll on @tedcruz - @BetoORourke #txsen race: It shouldn't be so surprising that Cruz is up 54-45, that's the same spread for the Quinnipiac poll as in Sept and Cruz has consistently led by 5+ points in other polls. 1/…
2/ Also should not surprise that Cruz is capturing nearly 40% of the Hispanic vote. That's about the avg for GOP candidates in TX. Hispanics who vote in TX tend to be more R-leaning than many in the MSM suppose.
3/ Gov. Greg Abbott won abt 44% of Hispanics in 2014, including 51% of Hispanic men. Gov. Rick Perry won abt 40% of Hispanics in his many elections throughout the 2000s. Even now, Abbott and Valdez (who is Hispanic) are splitting the Hispanic vote 46-50.
4/ There are a lot of reasons for this. TX is of course overall a more conservative state, including its Hispanic pop., but these numbers also reflect intentional, sustained outreach the @TexasGOP does with Hispanic voters, and the recruitment of Hispanic candidates statewide.
5/ Other notable thing abt the Quinn poll is that Beto's favorability rating is 45-47 compared to Cruz's 52-44. That flies in the face of glowing profiles/image of Beto in the MSM, but the reality is that the more Texans get to know Beto, the less favorable they seem to find him.
6/ That's probably much less a reflection on Beto himself (he seems likable enough) than it is on his policies, which are far to the left of most TX voters. He has emphasized bipartisanship while advocating for strictly Dem policies. Texans don't seem to be buying it. /fin
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