Take a step back, British diplomacy is not entirely failing here. It appears the UK is close to winning *legal* guarantees (i.e. in the withdrawal agreement — an international treaty) for two things which ensure the backstop is never used en route to the future relationship 1/6
1) A commitment to a "temporary" customs arrangement that is a looser form of customs union than currently exists. The UK will have a clause guaranteeing the EU will negotiate this, without the details of what it entails (it's an EU cheque from written out for jam tomorrow) 2/6
2) If the temporary customs arrangement is not ready in time for the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020, the U.K. can pull a trigger to extend the transition period for up to another year. (There may need to be a trigger to do this again) 3/6
Taken together, these are clever devices to ensure the backstop never comes into force. If the concessions materialise, Theresa May can look MPs in the eye and say the UK can stop the backstop ever being enforced, therefore it's possible to sign the withdrawal agreement 4/6
Yet, while UK diplomacy is working at the edges, raw EU power dominates completely. Why?
1) The backstop remains
2) The future relationship will now almost certainly see N.Ireland diverge from GB or the whole of the UK remain tied to single market rules 5/6
1) The backstop remains
2) The future relationship will now almost certainly see N.Ireland diverge from GB or the whole of the UK remain tied to single market rules 5/6
I deal with some of this in this piece below (including and why some EU diplomats believe we're still heading for a last-minute political intervention from EU leaders to stop catastrophe in the New Year) 6/6
politico.eu/article/uk-eu-…
politico.eu/article/uk-eu-…
