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Tom McTague @TomMcTague
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Back from 3 days in Brussels and another EU capital. One point worth emphasising: it’s hard to overstate how crap the backstop customs deal is for 🇬🇧, despite all this about it being hard for 🇪🇺 to live with. The 🇪🇺 would be perfectly okay with it I think. It’s Turkey, but worse.
As explained to me:
1. Trade deals EU *already* has with 3rd countries do not apply to UK
2. UK needs to renegotiate its *current deals* from weaker position without power to lower tariffs
3. New EU trade deals potentially open UK market to X country but *not* X market to UK
🤯
Trade boffins: is this wrong? That is certainly the EU’s view as of this morning. Some in Brussels cannot quite believe the UK is agreeing to this customs arrangement.
It’s pay more to get what you already have *at best* while giving up control over the vast bulk of trade policy
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A thread on Norway for Now👇
Momentum is growing for @NickBoles' plan. As I've said before, there's much to be said for it, but it still has a no. of problems (I count 8 politico.eu/article/soft-b…). To his credit, NB address them here: thetimes.co.uk/article/norway…. Is he right? 1/10
.@NickBoles is persuasive, but on 2 major problems — the backstop & leaving EEA/EFTA — I'm not fully convinced. Nick says 🇪🇺 will sign Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop if 🇬🇧 agrees EEA/EFTA without a time limit (because this achieves the same thing + customs union) 2/10
As of now, this is not No10's understanding. They believe the backstop is now sacrosanct for 🇪🇺 (i.e. even if 🇬🇧 agrees to move straight into EFTA/EEA it will have to sign a NI-specific backstop). Perhaps in a crisis, because Nick's logic is sound, this could change 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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There's a curious contradiction in the EU Withdrawal Act. If a deal can't be reached by Jan 21 the govt must make a statement within 14 days (Feb 4) — 7 "Commons sitting days" later (Feb 12) a motion must be laid for a vote on Plan B. *This is too late for a snap Brexit election*
Why? Because under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a vote of no confidence only triggers a general election if no alternative government can be formed within 14 days (Feb 26). After this 14-day period, by law there has to be a 6 week campaign (April 9). Brexit Day is March 29
Imagine the EU only agree an all-UK backstop in an emergency summit in Jan, what then? If MPs reject, forcing May back to the negotiating table, it's too late for an election. Is the only weapon left for MPs opposed to no-deal at this stage to form an alternative "pro deal" govt?
Read 3 tweets
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Take a step back, British diplomacy is not entirely failing here. It appears the UK is close to winning *legal* guarantees (i.e. in the withdrawal agreement — an international treaty) for two things which ensure the backstop is never used en route to the future relationship 1/6
1) A commitment to a "temporary" customs arrangement that is a looser form of customs union than currently exists. The UK will have a clause guaranteeing the EU will negotiate this, without the details of what it entails (it's an EU cheque from written out for jam tomorrow) 2/6
2) If the temporary customs arrangement is not ready in time for the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020, the U.K. can pull a trigger to extend the transition period for up to another year. (There may need to be a trigger to do this again) 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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A pre-dinner thread on the Customs Union, Customs Partnership and MaxFac options which I discussed this morning on @RidgeOnSunday
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