A thread on Norway for Now👇
Momentum is growing for @NickBoles' plan. As I've said before, there's much to be said for it, but it still has a no. of problems (I count 8 politico.eu/article/soft-b…). To his credit, NB address them here: thetimes.co.uk/article/norway…. Is he right? 1/10
Momentum is growing for @NickBoles' plan. As I've said before, there's much to be said for it, but it still has a no. of problems (I count 8 politico.eu/article/soft-b…). To his credit, NB address them here: thetimes.co.uk/article/norway…. Is he right? 1/10
.@NickBoles is persuasive, but on 2 major problems — the backstop & leaving EEA/EFTA — I'm not fully convinced. Nick says 🇪🇺 will sign Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop if 🇬🇧 agrees EEA/EFTA without a time limit (because this achieves the same thing + customs union) 2/10
As of now, this is not No10's understanding. They believe the backstop is now sacrosanct for 🇪🇺 (i.e. even if 🇬🇧 agrees to move straight into EFTA/EEA it will have to sign a NI-specific backstop). Perhaps in a crisis, because Nick's logic is sound, this could change 3/10
Nb: as I understand it, there is also a legal argument here. Does the backstop become null/void once 🇬🇧 enters its future relationship with EU? ("Unless & until" but not after.) If so, future relationship could be EEA/EFTA (+customs union) almost immediately after Brexit Day 4/10
Another problem, though, is EEA and EFTA have their own exit clauses, only worse than A50. EEA A127 says UK would have to give notice of its intention to leave, setting a 12-month countdown to WTO terms if no EU free-trade deal can be agreed in interim (back to where we are) 5/10
As before the EU would refuse to negotiate an FTA until after notification of Britain’s intention to leave EEA/EFTA. This would put UK in exactly the same position it is now. And the EU would probably insist on a transition period out of EEA, senior UK govt official told me 6/10
So, politically @NickBoles might be right that Norway for Now could pass the Commons (I wrote about this in Dec politico.eu/article/mps-fo…), but would it **really** once the reality of the situation hit MPs? He will know more about that than me 7/10
Remember: "Norway for Now" is an agreement, without time limit, for free movement, rule-taking & budget contributions (plus no independent trade policy) to avoid signing a backstop, in the hope that the EU will be more reasonable about a UK FTA after Brexit. Would it though? 8/10
One major upside of Norway for Now is it gives the UK time to **properly** prepare for WTO before notifying EEA/EFTA of its intention to leave, thereby **actually** being able to reject the EU's FTA terms if they only applied (as of now) to GB not whole UK 9/10
Finally, can kicking isn't always bad, but that's what it is. The key strategic point remains: Unless 🇪🇺 changes its line that an FTA is only available to GB and not whole-UK (why would it?) then 🇬🇧 must choose to leave *GB hard* *UK soft* or *UK WTO* Am I wrong @NickBoles? ends/
