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Tom McTague @TomMcTague
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
There's a curious contradiction in the EU Withdrawal Act. If a deal can't be reached by Jan 21 the govt must make a statement within 14 days (Feb 4) — 7 "Commons sitting days" later (Feb 12) a motion must be laid for a vote on Plan B. *This is too late for a snap Brexit election*
Why? Because under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a vote of no confidence only triggers a general election if no alternative government can be formed within 14 days (Feb 26). After this 14-day period, by law there has to be a 6 week campaign (April 9). Brexit Day is March 29
Imagine the EU only agree an all-UK backstop in an emergency summit in Jan, what then? If MPs reject, forcing May back to the negotiating table, it's too late for an election. Is the only weapon left for MPs opposed to no-deal at this stage to form an alternative "pro deal" govt?
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Back from 3 days in Brussels and another EU capital. One point worth emphasising: it’s hard to overstate how crap the backstop customs deal is for 🇬🇧, despite all this about it being hard for 🇪🇺 to live with. The 🇪🇺 would be perfectly okay with it I think. It’s Turkey, but worse.
As explained to me:
1. Trade deals EU *already* has with 3rd countries do not apply to UK
2. UK needs to renegotiate its *current deals* from weaker position without power to lower tariffs
3. New EU trade deals potentially open UK market to X country but *not* X market to UK
🤯
Trade boffins: is this wrong? That is certainly the EU’s view as of this morning. Some in Brussels cannot quite believe the UK is agreeing to this customs arrangement.
It’s pay more to get what you already have *at best* while giving up control over the vast bulk of trade policy
Read 3 tweets
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A thread on Norway for Now👇
Momentum is growing for @NickBoles' plan. As I've said before, there's much to be said for it, but it still has a no. of problems (I count 8 politico.eu/article/soft-b…). To his credit, NB address them here: thetimes.co.uk/article/norway…. Is he right? 1/10
.@NickBoles is persuasive, but on 2 major problems — the backstop & leaving EEA/EFTA — I'm not fully convinced. Nick says 🇪🇺 will sign Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop if 🇬🇧 agrees EEA/EFTA without a time limit (because this achieves the same thing + customs union) 2/10
As of now, this is not No10's understanding. They believe the backstop is now sacrosanct for 🇪🇺 (i.e. even if 🇬🇧 agrees to move straight into EFTA/EEA it will have to sign a NI-specific backstop). Perhaps in a crisis, because Nick's logic is sound, this could change 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Take a step back, British diplomacy is not entirely failing here. It appears the UK is close to winning *legal* guarantees (i.e. in the withdrawal agreement — an international treaty) for two things which ensure the backstop is never used en route to the future relationship 1/6
1) A commitment to a "temporary" customs arrangement that is a looser form of customs union than currently exists. The UK will have a clause guaranteeing the EU will negotiate this, without the details of what it entails (it's an EU cheque from written out for jam tomorrow) 2/6
2) If the temporary customs arrangement is not ready in time for the end of the transition period on December 31, 2020, the U.K. can pull a trigger to extend the transition period for up to another year. (There may need to be a trigger to do this again) 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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Have received numerous messages about my last note/thread. Thought I’d use them as opportunity to unpack our latest views on Brexit. Will build on this analysis as our views - and Brexit story - develops
1/ Current probabilities as of mid-December:

40% 2nd Ref. This is our central scenario, alongside extension of Article 50
30% Norway+
20% May’s deal
10% No-deal
Separately, think there is a 15% risk of early election

These numbers fluid, and will evolve
2/ Why such small % for no deal? There is conflict between the legal position in EU Withdrawal Act and the politics. The overwhelming view among ministers and backbenchers in all parties is that politics will win out
Read 24 tweets
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So when will the deal return to the Commons? 21 January is the deadline in law when if no deal has yet been reached, the government must within 5 days of that date, make a statement – that’s 26 January. 1/
And there needs to be a vote within 5 sitting days - that's 27 January. There’s some debate as to whether legally this is still triggered now there is a deal, but politically 21 January has taken root as an expectation on government. 2/
Supposing the deal passes, you then introduce the WAB straight away. And supposing you use EU Withdrawal Act as a template for how much time for scrutiny - then you need 13 days in the Commons and close to 20 in the Lords and 4 in ping-pong. 37 days. 3/
Read 6 tweets
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As the Brexit debate starts, the amendments come rolling in. This one is potentially significant. Signed by 16 Conservative MPs- including 'usual suspects' such as Grieve/Soubry, but also more surprising names such as Oliver Letwin + Nick Boles. What does it mean? Quick thread 👇
1. The amendment: "the provisions of Standing Order No. 24B" will not apply to any ministerial motion "pursuant to any provision of section 13 of the European Withdrawal Act." Confused? Bear with me, this gets quite technical...
2. S.O. 24B states that votes "in neutral terms" cannot be amended. Votes in neutral terms don't express an opinion ("this House has considered..")

Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act provides for several motions in neutral terms, which become amendable if 24B is disapplied.
Read 13 tweets
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As things stand there are two key options for the PM
- continue as planned & try to get deal through Parliament
- accept there will be no deal so immediately increase govt planning

In both cases the govt will have to go to parliament, I've set out no deal process below👇1/
EU Withdrawal Act says 3 prospects for no deal:
1) parly votes down the deal
2) PM announces that no deal can be reached by 21 Jan
3) 21 Jan arrives without a deal

In whichever scenario a minister has to make a statement saying what the govt plans to do next 2/
But Parliament will likely want to influence this process (e.g. extend article 50, second referendum) - because it is still unlikely there is a majority in the House for no deal

I think there are three ways that parliament could try and do this 3/
Read 8 tweets
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I have been thinking about the right parliamentary procedure for approving the Brexit deal. It is difficult, and I think the procedure could have a major bearing on the outcome.
The Government will table a motion in Parliament approving the withdrawal agreement and framework for a future relationship. There are three main options under discussion for how Parliament votes.
The first is a Queen’s Speech-style approach. MPs can put down amendments. The Speaker selects a few. MPs vote on amendments to the motion. If no amendments succeed, they then vote on the “clean” unamended motion at the end.
Read 21 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets

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