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Pascal 🇪🇺🇬🇧 @PascalLTH
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
@anandMenon1 @KeohaneDan @quatremer @cjbickerton @HelenHet20 If the position is that there isn't really a problem with Italy's public debt and that letting it grow with no signs of stopping will have no negative impact on the euro, then yeah, I suppose criticising the current situation is rather easy
@anandMenon1 @KeohaneDan @quatremer I actually agree that there's an essential tension between democratic governance and having a European economy that actually works and isn't sent into crisis by the actions of one state. But the point is that there is a tension, not that these rules are completely unnecessary.
@anandMenon1 @KeohaneDan @quatremer Criticise the technocratic regime, be my guest. But be honest about the alternatives:
- Ditching the rules and quickly hitting a new crisis
- Choosing to reverse integration and economic benefits
- Federalism as the only route to real democratic governance of a European economy
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There does seem to be a problem with how we define class in this country. On one hand if you go to a top university, a lot of measures judge that this makes you privileged and so you no longer 'count' as working class representation.
On the other hand looking at someone's background and parents seems to suggest your class is set from birth and is unchangeable - a pretty uncomfortable thought.
As @TomChivers points out, we should expect people who went to some of the best universities in the world to be overrepresented just about everywhere. Why do we react with shock then when this stat is pointed out in, for example, politics and journalism?
Read 6 tweets
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Yeah because its credibility was totally unharmed when it cut a deal with the Nazis to carve up Poland in 1939
Or after the annexations of the Baltic states in 1940-1 which eliminated democracies and led to thousands executed and deported
In pushing back against the Nazis the Red Army committed numerous mass executions and mass rapes - did that not affect its credibility?
Read 4 tweets
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Dec 2017 Govt impact assessment: "the movement of skilled business people within and between companies is an essential part of the sector’s business model. Major companies in the UK space sector have a multi-national structure with business units and teams spread around Europe"
"Frameworks and rules that establish free market access for goods and services are relevant to the sector. Manufacturers benefit from free trade within the EU for low-cost movement of parts and people to enable the sector’s mobile workforce to follow space projects around Europe"
"Rules that facilitate and guarantee the free transfer of personal data within Europe play a part in the current business model for the sector, where telecommunications data crosses between the UK and the EU for operational reasons."
Read 6 tweets

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Expansionary austerity: It's back! piie.com/blogs/realtime…
Blanchard and Zettelmeyer's argument is: 1) High public debt increases interest rates on public debt; 2) interest rates on public debt are passed through one for one to rates facing private borrowers; 3) higher interest rates reduce real activity enough to offset fiscal boost.
Point 1 sems iffy. They are quite confident that entire 160 basis point increase in Italy's public-debt rate in past 6 months is due to proposed budget (even tho as they note much of increase occurred before budget announced) and would be entirely reversed if EU budegt accepted.
Read 9 tweets
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What we are currently witnessing in U.S. Equity markets has been building for some time and has already been well underway globally. This is simply the next chapter.

The Global Reset continues.
The Reason for The Global Reset is that Risk prices have been distorted globally for a decade due to excessive manipulation by Central Banks across all asset classes, beginning with Sovereign Credit.
In 2015 and 2016, the Cycle attempted to turn due to natural Cyclical facts like mispriced high yield debt and a slowdown in China, but the Global Central Banks refused to allow this to happen.

They conducted one last coordinated intervention in early 2016 across the globe.
Read 18 tweets
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How #Italy has plunged into the maybe worst political crisis of its recent history and why this man below, one of the most xenophobic & eurosceptic leaders, Matteo Salvini, is the real winner so far and might become the game changer of Italian politics in the future. THREAD 🇮🇹
1. Let's start from the second point. Why a far right leader like Salvini, who distinguished himself in the past for his rash and violent attacks against migrants and Europe, is supposed to gain more votes and getting more and more decisive in the next months? Let's see.
#Italy
2. First reason of all: the worldwide populist Zeitgeist. Ok, but there are many more specific reasons related to Italy and what happened in the last few months. In a few words, Salvini has won all his political bets, so far. And he is getting more and more influential.
#Italy
Read 34 tweets
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Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Why the appointment of Italy’s finance minister is so important. My @bopinion take from this week. google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloo…
Read 11 tweets
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Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹
1. As I have been personally saying since the first election results (see here ) and despite a broad general skepticism on it in #Italy, a LEGA-M5S government was the only possible, given the circumstances after the vote. So, now we are very close to it.
2. Five Stars Movement (M5S) leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini have been negotiating for days on a coalition contract (like in Germany). There have reportedly agreed on many points (we'll see later). But the big hurdle is: who is going to be the new Prime Minister?
#Italy
Read 34 tweets
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Hello all. Sorry for the late hour, but I wanted to give you just some quick updates on #Italy’s political deadlock. As I had hinted here in the past, despite many discarded it in the 1st place, a sort of “populist” collaboration between LEGA and M5S is more likely
I tell you why
1. Today LEGA leader Salvini and M5S leader Di Maio had a phone call. It is the 1st actual, concrete contact between the two after #Italyelection2018, after pretending to ignore each other. It was “a frank and kind call”, they said. But what did they discuss on the phone?
2. Well, according to official statements, they primarily discussed the question of the two Parliaments speakers (House of reps + Senate, it is the first stel after elections), stressing the fact that the matter is “unrelated” to the formation of a potential government
#Italy
Read 23 tweets

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