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Robert Peston @Peston
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ministers tell me that if @theresa_may puts version of Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland backstop currently insisted upon by Brussels to Cabinet tomorrow, there is big danger cabinet will reject it. "I don't understand why EU27 would take the risk of a no-deal Brexit...
"...based on this issue", said the minister. "It does not make sense to me". The minister was referring to the provisions in the draft Withdrawal Agreement that would make it impossible for the UK to get out of a customs union without there being a theoretical...
...possibility of Northern Ireland alone then being in the customs union and single market. That would be seen by Tory and DUP unionists as making real their worst nightmare, namely a new legal border down the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland...
...So does May try to force the deal through cabinet, and risk ministerial resignations, or allow cabinet to reject the deal, and risk the rest of the EU concluding there is no basis for a negotiated deal?
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.@Femi_Sorry and @Anna_Soubry are the UK I love. The rest are not my country. This is nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with decency
What has happened to us? I make a comment that no one deserves to be abused by an angry mob and about the importance of treating each other with respect. And the typical response here is I am showing pro-Remain bias. This is nuts and worrying.
What happened in the words of @Anna_Soubry: “police refused to intervene and when asked (unknown by a BBC producer) refused to escort me back to HoC. The thugs tried to block the entrance and we had to ask the police to let us in. Utterly appalling. What sane person...
Read 6 tweets
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I put to senior government source whether attached is official NHS advice. This was the reply: “No. This is not an official NHS publication. People should trust advice from official NHS sources. We are confident that if everyone does what they need to do, medicine...
”supplies will be uninterrupted, and patients will get their prescriptions in the usual way”. That said, I understand why anyone with chronic or acute illness will be anxious. If @theresa_may really wants no-deal Brexit to be seen as preferable to a referendum, which...
...apparently she does, then providing credible reassurance to the most vulnerable must surely be top priority.
Read 3 tweets
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For the civil service Brexit is becoming very real indeed. Officials at the Department for International Development, which isn't much affected by Brexit in a direct sense, were told this morning that up to 600 of their number - out of just 3000 - may have to be redeployed to...
...departments that are suffering from staff shortages because of their Brexit workloads. One department they are likely to be seconded to, they were told, is @michaelgove's Department for Environment, Food and Regional Affairs. A source at DFID tells me that it won't be till...
...the new year that anxious DFID civil servants know their fate. Another source told me that this unsought Brexit merry-go-round for civil servants will affect every Whitehall department in some way. There is a widespread sense that planning, for both no-deal and a deal-based...
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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The Walloon Solution, codicils, the Danish-Dutch fix -- what on earth does all this have to do with Brexit?

Here's my (probably futile) attempt to explain
The challenge: Theresa May needs a legally binding reassurance on the Northern Ireland backstop that does not actually change Britain's exit treaty.
The Danes faced this problem in 1992 when they voted down the Maastricht treaty.

With (a little) help from the Brits and some nifty footwork from @piris_jc a creative solution was found.

(@OleRyborg says it was first written on a copy of the FT during a Brazil-Norway flight)
Read 17 tweets
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Ahem. Sorry to intrude on today's Westminster drama but....

A faction of the Tory Party is trying to unseat @theresa_may over the the Irish backstop #Brexit

But here is why it isn't going away. Whatever happens. Deal or no deal. 1/Thread
@theresa_may First, the simple politics.

The ERG hates the backstop. They want a unilateral exit clause - but the more they talk about that, the more the EU and Irish are going to cling to the need for a backstop that guarantees no return to a hard border. /2
@theresa_may But let us say, for sake of argument, that the ERG gets its way.

The brave new PM (Raab, Boris, DD or whoever) rides into Brussels with an ultimatum: it's the deal-minus-backstop, or No deal.

And against all the odds and predictions of smart alecs like me, the EU caves... /3
Read 20 tweets
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So the ticklish moment awaits.

Consistent with @tombradby am told #Brexit Withdrawal Agreement texts were in London overnight, came back to Brussels this morning. That they are not finally closed, but the EU is "waiting for verdict" to decide next steps. /1
@tombradby Seems like, per @Steven_Swinford
there are still one or two small areas to fix.

But we wait for Cabinet to be called to decide, essentially, if the 'review mechanism' for the Irish backstop really does create some kind of 'exit clause' for UK.

Cabinet set high bar on this../2
@tombradby @Steven_Swinford Interesting that @rte is quoting EU officials saying they don't expect a deal this week.

So we should discount possibility that Cabinet says 'no'. Although the self-imposed pressure for a Nov 24-25 EU Summit is strong. /3
Read 16 tweets
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Brexit talks next week will be overshadowed by EU fears that the government might be reneging on previous commitments to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland.
Negotiations will formally begin again as early as next Tuesday or Wednesday after the budget.
Talks will be repeat of the “tunnel” earlier this month with the aim of getting something a deal over the line after mid-November.
There is still cautious optimism in Brussels but some concern UK is moving back on previous agreements on Ireland.
EU officials and diplomats are carefully scrutinising PM's speech yesterday. Everyone is in the dark.
“Only Olly Robbins, her chief negotiator, the PM and a tiny circle know what is going on and what the plan is,” said one source.
Read 22 tweets
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Tonight at 2200 on @skynews i’ve been in the port of Larne, Northern Ireland with Daisy the cow, who could save the Brexit Deal or imperil the Union, depending on your view...#backstop #borderforcows
in the Northern Ireland port town of Larne, one of the places where Irish Sea checks would be required under EU Ireland Brexit backstop proposal, currently being negotiated in Brussels..
and one of the places where checks actually already happen on animal trade between Sco & NI
Barnier mentioned these existing “Irish Sea” checks as a precedent yesterday - but would have to be tenfold increase for backstop...DUP source said this was building “an entire edifice” on some foot & mouth checks for cows..MEP Diane Dodds said checks on lasagne as well as cows
Read 6 tweets
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I don't think this is right. The EU know that the PM doesn't command her ERG backbenchers, and that her negotiating position can be changed by them, as we saw yesterday. It also looks like there is a majority for Brexit under any circumstances.
So if I were an EU negotiator there isn't much point in trying to engage with the White Paper proposals, which in any case go against EU red lines, as I don't in fact know whether the content of the White Paper has a majority.
Therefore as well as warning that London will quite possibly reject any deal, the EU would be preparing for a no-deal, and offering only the Withdrawal Agreement with Northern Ireland backstop. I cannot see where there is any incentive to engage otherwise.
Read 3 tweets

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