This could be the moment France cuts up rough - on level playing fields & fishing rights /5
But this was from Friday, so perhaps now sorted? Or perhaps 'parked' by excluding fish products from All-UK customs union, pending further discussion. /6
I predicted some time ago that No 10 would frame it this way, but this choice has since been turned against them by both wings of opposition represented by @JoJohnsonUK and @BorisJohnson /7
No 10 will argue that the binary "vassalage v carnage" is a ) false b) used as an excuse to not make difficult decisions.
So @JoJohnsonUK plays that card, because he basically wants to 'remain' and @BorisJohnson because he wants 'clean' #Brexit /8
One question that will need answering - and it is difficult to quantify - is just how much 'vassalage' this deal will actually entail? /9
Proponents will say it has 'taken back control' on Free Movement, on a chunk of budget payments, on large parts of the economy, leaving door open to deals on services, procurement etc /10
And if UK wants to minimise both GB-NI gap, and GB-EU frictions it will have to remain highly aligned with Single Market rules. /11
All of which points back to why this 'review mechanism', and what it says, is so crucial. /12
Get the messaging wrong and, like Cameron's EU renegotiation deal, the entire thing will land in London dead on arrival, despite the triumphant work of the technical negotiations.
Get it right... /15
The ERG decides that 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' & everyone else votes for order over chaos.
And the deal passes with anti-climatic ease.
We'll see... 16/ENDS