In other 538 news, we've improved our NBA projections to reflect injuries and lineup changes. For instance, the program knows that the Warriors are pretty mediocre right now with Curry/Draymond/Cousins out, but will be very good once at full strength. 53eig.ht/2En8Fdc 
We're also now accounting for the fact that teams use shorter rotations in the playoffs. This helps top-heavy teams like GSW and HOU as opposed to deeper ones like TOR, although don't worry because our model will never get over its love of the Raptors.
p.s. Sometimes injuries can HELP teams because they were playing unproductive players—the 76ers are helped by not having Markelle Fultz in their rotation, for instance.
Here are the individual players whose projections have improved the most since the pre-season. It's a pretty eclectic list. Doncic, Jackson Jr. and Ayton (who just missed this list) are all roughly league-average players as rookies, which is hard to do and a very positive sign.
And here are the biggest decliners. A lot of rookies who have been terrible defensively, some veterans in decline, some guys (Lonzo) who haven't been bad but that our forecast was probably overrating to begin with.
