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John Arnold
@JohnArnoldFndtn
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Illinois pensions have entered the death spiral, as they fall further behind in FY 18 even with strong investment returns. The funds have $223 bln of liabilities growing at assumed rate of 7% a year ($15 bln). But with assets of only $90 bln, must earn 17% just to stay even.
For Illinois' FY '18 which ended in June, the S&P rose 14.2% including dividends. The 5 largest pension funds in Illinois earned 6.9-8.3%. Even after a larger cash contribution from the state, the funds fell $4 bln further behind. What happens in a year when the market is down??
Good report here:
wirepoints.com/illinois-offic…
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John Arnold
@JohnArnoldFndtn
1/ A short rant on the deficit & Modern Monetary Theory. MMT states that since the US can print as much $ as it wants, it can never go bankrupt and deficits are generally not important. Thus, the US should run significant deficits to maximize productive capacity. All good so far.
2/ The problem is that the economic and political realities of how government works means that this policy will end badly. Even the leading proponent of MMT, Stephanie Kelton, believes the policy can be overdone.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/ Intuitively, it must. Otherwise, we should cut taxes to zero and double all spending. If there are no negative ramifications to the deficit, then let’s go. But even Bernie Sanders, whom Kelton worked for, has a section on his website “How Bernie pays for his proposals.”
Read 22 tweets
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John Arnold
@JohnArnoldFndtn
I worry about global warming bc the downside scenario is, though not certain, catastrophic & the impacts extraordinarily hard to reverse.
I worry about the federal debt bc the downside scenario is, though not certain, catastrophic & the impacts extraordinarily hard to reverse.
Given my follow-on tweet has been misinterpreted 100 different ways I deleted it. My point is I don’t want to leave my kids a climate disaster or an economic one. This isn’t either/or. Society can choose to be responsible stewards of the planet AND be fiscally responsible.
Most climate policy options have no federal deficit impact: carbon tax, cap and trade, renewable standards, increased energy efficiency standards, etc. We can choose to be responsible stewards of the environment AND responsible stewards of the economy.
Read 3 tweets
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John Arnold
@JohnArnoldFndtn
A side project we @LJA_Foundation have worked on is to bring greater transparency, oversight, & accountability to organ donation system. The orgs that procure organs have geographic monopolies of highly varying quality. Frankly, we think some are poorly managed & could do better.
The report we commissioned was picked up by WaPo this week in a 3 part series. After reading it, @ToddYoungIN pledged to introduce legislation to expand oversight of the industry: “nation’s organ donation system operat(es) in darkness, it’s time to get a look behind the curtain”
Report is here: bridgespan.org/bridgespan/Ima…
Primary WaPo article here: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/…
Read 3 tweets

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Greg Palast
@Greg_Palast
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Road Scholarz
@roadscholarz
(1/16) "The poor are the guinea pigs for immature financial technologies"

Jean Drèze on the Airtel-Aadhaar scam, Aadhaar Payment Bridges System, 'LALA' rules & the resulting havoc on fragile lives of the poor.

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Rich Geldreich
@richgel999
At a SelfOrganizingCo contractors typically have limited lifespans, zero Purge Immunity, and cannot earn Company Bucks. Savvy Barons will hire productive contractors and loan or give them out to other needy teams. Barons with this valuable scouting ability gain favor at the Firm.
Hiring is the most important task of a self organized worker, and the savviest employees will find unique ways of recruiting good contractors.
Depending on the phase of the company, contractors can be marked for life as inferior to ever being full-timers. If the firm becomes desperate for new hires or rapid growth, it can use contracting as a probationary or trial period.
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Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
In this thread, I assess the following argument for the claim that #USS is not in deficit:

Argument #2: The scheme is not in deficit but rather is in surplus because it is in surplus on a best estimate basis.

1/
This is the second in a series. See this embedded link for my assessment of Argument #1: 2/

Argument #2 figures in @UCU's HE8 (linked), which speaks of "the artificial creation of the USS deficit" and calls on UCU negotiators to replace USS's approach to the valuation by "best estimate", among other things. 3/

ucu.org.uk/article/9502/H…
Read 21 tweets
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Robert A. García
@Bretui_1064
1) Anem a obrir un FIL sobre un tema estelar. Les pensions. Els partits unionistes utilitzen com a argument de campanya que perillarien les pensions en una Catalunya independent. El gran problema és que Espanya segurament no podrà pagar les pensions entre 2018 i 2019.
2) Preciso, pagar pagarà. El problema com sempre és quant pagarà. I no podrà garantir les prestacions actuals. Haurà de retallar. Encara que Catalunya continuï dins del sistema espanyol. Recordem uns pocs conceptes bàsics del funcionament del sistema de pensions.
3) El sistema de pensions actuals és de repartiment. Els treballadors actuals paguen les pensions actuals. La salut del sistema depèn, llavors, dels següents paràmetres: a) Quants treballadors contribueixen per cada pensionista; b) Quin és el salari mig dels treballadors;
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