All joking aside, the MDP document released publicly was never going to contain deep detail and USDOD SAR style accounting. Fortunately there's quite a lot of underlying meat in there. Let's have a look:
[Long Thread]
[Long Thread]
Since SDSR2015 and A2020(R), the MOD has defined across various doctrine notes a slightly different concept it has referred to infrequently as Joint Force 2025. This is an interim organisation that is moving toward Multi-Domain.
The MDP specifies that JF2025 remains the planning assumption and from that we can infer that such as Future Operating Environment 2035 and the 2035 speech by the CGS remain as informing JF2025 rather than overtaking.
We're safe to assume that FOE2035 and FF2035 remain the step after this FF2025 transitional step. That's a lot riding on the latter end of next decade. To ameliorate we'll likely have a transitional organisation ready to adapt.
This transitional step remains a Maritime Task Group, a Triangular Division (sporting Strike), sustainable combat/transport/ISTAR Air Group and Special Forces.
This fits a rotational model fitting in with our allies, but also preserves an expeditionary element for intervention or... expeditionary... warfare.
There's a lot of indirect parallels that can be drawn with the transformation and preparation around the British Expeditionary Force here.
It also means we still have a policy focus on Allies and not many others can shoulder a Task group or Divisional rotation for the US.
It should be noted that the UK *still* maintains significant numbers of available auxiliary vessels, transport aircraft and RLC personnel at a /ratio/ higher than our allies, even the US. Remember this moving forward.
The Progress section of the MDP also covers a quiet and oft-forgotten expansion and redevelopment of bases and facilities, together with the early stages of forward basing our assets.
There's also a reminder in this section that the UK has shifted its NATO focus. Whereas "losing HQ's to Europe" scores political points, in truth we're shifting to lead the cover of the North via JEF and large exercises.
Also note the adversary role the UK played in the recent Trident Juncture exercise. That highlights the leading role being played: Jester and Viper taught by flying Red Air. Maverick learned.
The Progress section finishes with comms. There's been an uptick in the material released on post-MORPHEOUS work such as BMA, EvO and HAWK. This is a quiet reinforcement of what will be an Offset for the UK.
The Transform section is particularly interesting. There's an awful lot under the surface here: A Triad of Nuclear Deterrent, Conventional Deterrent and in particular Intervention driving the planning is clear.
Also clear are capability regeneration programs. These are numerous, but all below Category A and so information are not oft released. CBRN, Temperate Mobility, Arctic training, CSAR, JCF, etc are suggested.
Space and Cyberspace are regularly listed alongside Land, Sea and Air these days. Maybe I'll get my wish and see a real-life S.H.A.D.O. Service formed after all :)
Creation of a Defence Policy Board (DPB) made of external experts (get your CV's in the post, folks) is extremely positive. Related £160M budget for innovation is a start (see their Twitter account)... but...
...we must remember the Army somehow sprayed an eyewatering £113M... on a website... lessons *must* be learned and stewardship of that budget needs to be given to a named person who feels the weight of hope of that responsibility.
Back to the DPB: There used to be an overarching partnership with the Establishments and Industry but the baby had been thrown out with the bathwater. Regenerating what was good about that arrangement will benefit us.
The MDP mentions the need for "Financial Headroom". That means a future cash injections are needed. I predict we'll see more filip's in future (the £800M and £1B) instead of budget uplift. This isn't necessarily a bad thing.
The Updating section is less meaty underneath. Such is the nature of Strategy and Policy. It's hard to write solid content here, kudos to the authors as there's substance behind it.
The Fusion doctrine is known for *that* PowerPoint slide, but it's really Multi-Domain on Steroids, adding in the UK's not-inconsiderable Soft Power.
Forget media hyperbole, facilities such as the foreign trade credit lines we offer are vast and underpin many of the UK Manufacturing good news about inward investment.
We've also become better rapidly at joined up thinking. Some way to go but DfID funding St Helena airport (it was *always* a challenge) and CATAPULT coordinating with the MOD for COE's are two examples.
I'll be keeping this MDP close at hand for the National Security Objectives' tables alone. They neatly summarise half a dozen (estimated) doctrine and Joint Concept Notes. Recommend you do too.
The MDP highlights the MOD is maintaining its "International by Design" policy. US, France and NATO commitments are mentioned, especially Sahel and the British Peace Support Team.
Also highlighted here is the importance of Tech: This section is the UK's version of the need for a "Fourth Offset"...
...we're getting into sensitive territory in this section and so vagueness must be permitted but consider the likes of the autonomous MCM and AWE2018 streams ongoing during the writing.
Also, I think this is the first public mention of the Future Commando Force. There's a *lot* of Commando money going on sub Cat A programs.
For example, previously announced JHC work and the £20M on digital networks specified here may finally include Wildcat's being unleashed as the digital platform.
Five paragraphs are dedicated to People. That's more than the previous SDSR. That means improvement in approach at the least. I look forward to seeing the tangibles that follow.
Conclusion: The MDP document is short. But then it's not an SDSR. It's confirming we're transitioning into an interim shape underneath but with organisational change with both an end point and possible next step.
The MDP highlights the MOD has secured and is seeking filip's to give it headroom to transform. I think I prefer this to a full budget uplift, at least until we've completed the transition. Akin to the US approach in micro.
Pat on the back for the team who've produced this for general release. I can only imagine the material and people you had to herd and obtain signoff to put this out there. Thank you.
/FIN
Manged to break the thread here, apologies. rest is here:
Could you try an unroll please @threadreaderapp?
